📊 There has been a lot of talk about #COVID19 summer 2nd waves in Europe. But I think the country we should look at as a leading indicator of transitioning into winter is Australia 🇦🇺. Two words on why (usual caveat applies: I am not a virologist nor an epidemiologist) 1/ 
What we are seeing in European summer 2nd waves is a big increase in cases with (for now) stable deaths numbers. This is unlike what we had in March/April and there are a lot of factors contributing to it that have been explained by experts (age profile, better knowledge etc). 2/
The 2nd wave in 🇦🇺 however has come with a significant increase in daily new deaths, which are currently 4x where they were at peak 1st wave (see 📊 above). Differently from Europe, 🇦🇺 had its 1st wave in summer and is having its 2nd wave in winter (being southern hemisphere) 3/
Yet, we are now some 8 months into #COVID19 so it is difficult to argue that Australia was 'caught by surprise' or did not have enough time to prepare for winter. Nor is Australia a poor country or led by negationist government. 4/
So 🇦🇺 data seems rather to suggest that there's some higher risk inherently attached to winter regardless of awareness (be it for time indoor or whatever other factor, that's for medical experts to say obv). This is the datapoint that I personally find most informative right now.
