Somalia faces two demanding tasks: that of fighting insurgency, Shebab, and that of building federated state, where power is shared and all armed actors are unified under accountable system: defeats Shebab or forces them jump-start the political process.
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/644…
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/644…
Dialogue and iterative agreements was needed to formally integrate all armed forces, both regional and federal forces, to secure the country ( UN & World Bank, 2017). Dialogue was rare in Somalia, leading inability of Somalis to assume the responsibility of their security.
Due to lack of political willingness to agree on iterative manner to formalize power and security under public payroll, allows armed conflicts to continue, in addition to other security challenges, such as crime, clan violence, corruption and inter-clan rivalry. #Somalia
The study predicts that fraud, corruption, localized crime, violence and inter-clan rivalry will continue even after insurgency ends and political agreement is finalized ( UN and WB, 2017). Rationale: security institutions need time and resources to effectively do their job.
Insecurity, evidently claims many Somali lives and properties, and other lives too, case in point piracy and violent insurgency; similarly, security costs a lot too; Somalia may need a minimum of about $300 million per year to pay for security forces that secure the country.
Somalia spends about $10 million per year on formal justice; however most of the Somalis use informal dispute resolution mechanism, that use Xeer, customary law; formal justice lacks strategic links to this; relations between courts and functions are not clear( UN & WB, 2017)
The main consumer of security funds is personnel, assuring right persons receive compensation is a priority task ( UN & and World Bank, 2017) . It is not clear to this writer if Farmajo government succeeded in finishing biometric registrations and formal Bank salary payment.
Delegation of power to 'central or public authority' is central to the political contestations ( UN & WB, 2017). In Somalia the main dispute is power, even Shebab under guise of religion wants power, so is Farmajo and his opposition: in the context of no agreements of its use.
Somalia is extremely dependent on external assistance, because of low revenue ( UN &WB, 2017). This explains why Somali leaders listen to interested powers known as international community. Only Mogadishu pays revenues to the federal government. Desire sovereignty? need revenues
Somalia does not raise revenues sufficient to cover its security costs; thus, it has less means to deliver services and spur economic development. However, if it raises revenues throughout Somalia and gets loans, then it may be able to secure and develop #Somalia
If Somalia gets loans as result of debt relief, will it be able to pay back? Security tend to increase revenue base in the longer run, 10-20 years, Somaliland provides an example ( UN and WB, 2017). If so, Somalia, If run properly, may turn the tables on poverty & insecurity
