Thread by @RainTracker

1/n
Thread on Kerala Rains during September. #Kerala #KeralaRains

Short version: Not easy to predict as August, yet excess September on cards, many days of heavy rains possible, but disastrous rainfall unlikely(10% probability only)

2/n.. Rains will return slowly by Aug 31, by Sept 2 Kerala will be back to full-fledged monsoon mode. By Sept 6, Rainfall will increase heavily in ghats. I expect Rains to continue till 22-25th September with small breaks.

However, the biggest elephant in the room is cyclone..

3/n There is a good possibility of formation of cyclone in both Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Kerala rainfall will depend a lot on formation of these cyclones. THese cyclones are tougher to predict, that's why i said September is more tough to predict.

And unlike what u think..

4/n A cyclone/depression in bay of bengal means more rain for Kerala than same in Arabian Sea,because a cyclone in Arabian sea will divert westerlies away from Kerala, whereas System in BoB mean more intense westerlies.
For those who interested in meterologicl reasons behind..

5/n
1) MISO index coming to favorable phase after favoring North india for long
2) La Nina year - more rains in Sept
3) MJO in phase 2/3 and interaction with Rossby wave producing systems.
This is supported by models too. For eg, IMD extended range shows excess rains.

6/n ECM weeklies .

7/n Overall, we can look ahead to a good rainy September, but a small chance(5-10%) do exist for problems too, i will update if any chances of such disastrous rains increase, as of now, let's look forward to enjoy rains as relief from heat. #Kerala

8/n TamilNadu and Karnataka too will have a fantastic month ahead as both interiors as well as ghats will be smashed. Expect #Mettur to overflow(70% chance) and other dams to fill.

n/n .. P.S 1: If interested in technical terms I used above, do ask.

P.S 2: Refer IMD for official forcast. (Forcast link: mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/con… )

That's it. have a cheerful September. #Kerala #Karnataka #TamilNadu #Chennai #Mettur ..n/n