Thread by @RijoMJohn

👉29 Aug: India crossed 3.5M reported #COVID19 cases & 63657 deaths
👉About 5 lac new cases & 6811 deaths added in the past 7 days
👉Daily TPR 8.2%
👉Follow this thread to understand important trends national, state & district level
(1/n)
My👍to #Mann_Ki_Nahi_Students_Ki_Baat

👉Cases growing at 2.2% compared to 2.4% a week back
👉7-day avg. daily new cases shows no sign of slowing
👉Daily active cases rebounding (growth 1.2%)
👉Tests growing at 2.3%.
👉Daily tests averaged 9L past 7 days
👉Daily deaths ~1000 level (2/n)

👉Growth of tests keeping above that of cases
👉Daily TPR beginning to go up again
👉Rapid antigen tests take >50% of testing in many states including Delhi, Kerala, Andhra, Karnataka etc.
👉Some are not utilizing their full RT-PCR capacity
(3/n)

👉CH & CT growth >5%
👉Most states got TPR<6% now
👉Southern states like AP, KA & KL has high TPR despite high share of Rapid Antigen tests in their daily tests
👉TN continues to depend fully on RT-PCR
👉Very high TPR in MH, AP & KA is worrying, all being high burden states
(4/n)

👉Mortality rate as % of reported cases 1.8%
👉Mortality per million population 47
👉High variation across states
👉Mortality rates extremely low in almost the whole of Northeast whether we see deaths per million or cases
Many eastern states & KL also has very low MR
(5/n)

👉Trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total cases
👉Both these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemic
👉High variations in these rates are apparent in most states
(6/n)

👉The daily reported numbers from y'day across states with at least 1000 cases
👉Ladakh, Arunachal & TS were among states with highest tests per million per day y'day
👉Many larger and high burden states like MH, UP, WB, MP etc doing low tests per million per day
(7/n)

👉Trends in daily new cases across states.
👉Some of the states are now showing signs of rebound in cases
👉Delhi growing at 1.1% after bottoming at 0.7%
(8/n)

👉This shows you which are the states where active cases are on the rise & needs to be worried
👉focus on the grey shaded area
👉There's clear sign of declining trends in cases in some states while it is going up in several others
👉Some are seeing rebound in cases
(9/n)

👉Trends in daily test per million & test positive rate across states with 5K+ reported cases
👉Odisha, Rajasthan & Punjab seem to be either reducing or not increasing their daily TPM
👉States seeing increase in TPR needs to significantly increase daily TPM too
(10/n)

👉Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases
👉55% of cases & 68% of deaths now come from these districts
👉This was 57% of cases & 69% just a week ago
👉Delhi, Ahmednagar, Krishna dist. & few others seeing a rebound in cases after declining for several days
(11/n)

TL;DR:
👉#COVID19 continues its spread beyond urban centers
👉It is still on an⬆️trajectory & cases still growing exponentially
👉Some states/cities seeing rebound in daily cases
👉RT-PCR capacity needs to⬆️significantly
👉Report both tests & +ves by test types & districts (n/n)

And this is where the trajectory of #COVID19 is expected to be in the month of September

https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1297747902291312640?s=20