A thread on #oil #product #tankers with excerpts from the latest Gibson weekly report:
hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/upl…

"Refinery rationalization is back on the agenda. With a prolonged weakness in refinery margins due to Covid-19 related demand destruction and an uncertain future..."
"...for hydrocarbon consumption, many refiners have decided to throw in the towel, choosing to either sell, close, or convert their refining assets. The impact is not just in Europe, but global. Aging capacity in the United States, Asia and Australia is also under threat."
"On a global basis, up to 2.6 million b/d of crude distillation capacity is at risk of full closure, or conversion to other purposes. But what does this mean for the tanker market?

In reality, it is unlikely to be a game-changer in the near term."
"Globally, refining capacity is in excess and by rationalizing capacity, those refineries that survive will see improved margins and higher run
rates than would have been the case."
"Further, as increased capacity shifts to the East of Suez, and regional crude production stands to decline, tonne mile demand is expected to benefit. Likewise, reduced capacity in Europe and Australia should create new incremental product import opportunities."

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More from @GregVous

24 Jun
I'd like to share some thoughts about #tankers $EURN $STNG $FRO $DHT $TNK $INSW $ASC $TRMD $OET & the market in general.

It's counter-productive at best & delusional at worst to guide your investment decisions (I'm not talking about short-term trading) based on the market 1/n
whose inefficiency you seek to exploit.

Either you see a market inefficiency and move to exploit it or the market is pricing the asset efficiently and thus you move on (or accept market results).

From a short-term trading perspective things are different. You seek to 2/n
ride the market's ups & downs & thus you must constantly be tuned to the market's fluctuations & try to see what comes next.

If you're investing, volatility isn't risk. Your risks lie on business performance.

You buy what you think the market will like in a year or more 3/n
Read 13 tweets
15 May
I'm doing a thread on the Danish Ship Finance report @Splash_247 highlighted here: splash247.com/danish-ship-fi…

The full report will be probably available sometime in the future here: shipfinance.dk/shipping-resea…

$STNG $ASC $DSSI $HAFNIA $INSW $EURN $TNK $FRO $DHT #tankers #oott #oil
This is their overview of where we are:
They see a challenging future ahead for shipbuilding and at face value, this sounds bullish for rates (ship supply is coming down right?) but it is not always so.

Desperate shipbuilders offer silly cheap prices to entice orders. Also, governments may decide to finance
Read 18 tweets

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