Thread by @RijoMJohn

👉15 Sep: India reported 50 lakh+ #COVID19 cases & 82091 deaths
👉Read this detailed thread for important trends national, state & district level that matters
👉10 lakh new cases & 12456 deaths were added in the past 11 days
👉The next 10 lakh cases expected in ~10 days!
(1/n)

👉Cases growing at the rate of 2%
👉7-day avg. daily new cases shows a minor decline
👉Daily active cases falling (growth 1.5%)
👉Tests growing at 1.98% & 50% tests are Rapid antigen
👉Daily tests averaged 10.9L past 7 days
👉Daily deaths ~1150 level (2/n)

👉Growth of tests keeping at or below that of cases which means tests aren't adequate
👉Avg. daily TPR 8.5% despite using ~50% rapid antigen tests
👉Clearly, this means a lot of undetected cases out there
👉Most states don't report test results by test types
(3/n)

👉Chattisgarh has highest growth 5.1%
👉Only about 5 states got TPR<5% now
👉MH doing abysmally low levels of testing despite contributing to more than a 5th of India's cases. Its TPR at 25%, i.e, every 4th tests is finding a new case!
(4/n)

👉Mortality rate at 1.64% & 61 deaths per million population
👉Substantial variation across states
👉#Maharashtra alone contributes 37% of India's #COVID19 deaths
(5/n)

👉Trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total cases
👉Both these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemic
👉High variations in these rates are apparent in most states
(6/n)

👉The daily reported numbers from y'day across states
👉40% of reported deaths came from MH alone!
👉Puducherry, Delhi, & Chandigarh were among states with highest tests per million per day y'day
👉India did 825 tests per million y'day
(7/n)

👉Trends in daily new cases across states.
👉MH showing its 7-day avg. new cases declining (huge caveat is very low # of tests)
👉Delhi's 7-day avg. is now higher than its earlier peak (8/n)

👉Trends in daily test per million per day & test +ve rate across states with at least 20K reported cases
👉This chart is extremely useful to know if states are doing adequate tests
👉Those keeping daily TPM steady or decreasing despite increasing TPR are doing terribly bad
(9/n)

👉Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases
👉53% of cases & 65% of deaths now come from these districts
👉The share of top 50 states in both cases & deaths have declined steadily indicative the wider spread of the virus
(10/n)

👉The total cases in India are following this projected trajectory
👉Expecting the next 1 million new cases in the next 10 days accordingly
👉India will be #1 for total reported #COVID19 cases in the world by October 1st week (n/n)

https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1297747902291312640?s=20