Richard Black Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Few thoughts on Making Mission Possible, the bumper #netzero report out this morning from @ETC_energy
As the title implies the Commission (which includes a vast array of super-sized businesses such as Tata, Shell, Rio Tinto...) concludes global #netzero is abundantly possible, and govts and businesses should set course for it - 2050 for richer nations, 2060 for the remainder Image
(That's compatible with the #ParisAgreement 1.5ºC commitment btw, as they're talking about neutrality for all greenhouse gases not just CO2)
If there's one absolute key to this, it's electrification. Other zero- or low-carbon techs such as hydrogen and CCS get a look-in, but are relative bit-part part players Image
This implies that govts stimulate a vast increase in renewable generation - 10/15-fold - and that rhetoric about hydrogen, CCS, nuclear etc being "the solution" goes in the bin - they aren't, and never have been. They're niche resources, best deployed in targeted manner
It also implies that governments take seriously something else that all expert analyses conclude - improving energy productivity, being more efficient, doing more with less - is an absolute no-brainer, and key to constraining costs Image
Another canard slain (again) is that it can or should be done via magical thinking on offsets: "It is undoubtedly technically and economically possible to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by around mid-century, without relying on the permanent and significant use of offsets..."
All nations will be involved in this journey and much progress is by definition global, but two nations stand out as critical - China and India. Good news for India is @ETC_energy calculates the needed huge rollout of new generation won't cost more if it's all zero-carbon
And talking of cost... we're in the ballpark of 0.5% of global GDP to deliver #netzero - one-third of that if govts go big on energy productivity. In any analysis this is much less, @ETC_energy notes, than likely climate impact costs if govts fail to deliver #ParisAgreement
Not everyone's going to like it... one senses oil companies won't, for starters. Coal producers guaranteed to hate it Image
Final takeaway: start now. Get the immediate future, the now, wrong, and we're into an era of rapidly escalating cost or into abandoning any ambition of meaningfully curbing climate change. Which brings both the economic rebuilding from #COVID19 and #COP26 into sharp relief
Those are my takeaways, but you can get your own here energy-transitions.org/publications/m…

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More from @_richardblack

Jul 2
THREAD: Seen a bit of chat recently implying that the UK shouldn't put pedal to the metal on decarbonisation as it's so far gone faster than US - which is true, it has
The implication is that somehow this speed has been bad for the UK economy. The data say otherwise
Since 1990, UK GDP has increased 3.45-fold, according to the World Bank. The US, 3.42-fold. Basically, identical data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…
Read 7 tweets
Dec 4, 2023
THREAD: With all the talk #cop28 centring on #fossilfuelphaseout or not – abated, unabated, etc – what actually is the logical role of CCS in the energy transition?
In a new paper for @thesmithschool @uniofoxford, Dr Andrea Bacilieri, Dr Rupert Way and I analyse the relative costs of taking a high-CCS vs a low-CCS route to #netzero and the 1.5°C temperature goal – a question that as far as we can see hasn’t been properly asked before
And the difference?
Read 16 tweets
Apr 28, 2023
Hilarious to see @NetZeroWatch plugging this 'dangers of woke banking' line... here's their chairman's own company's sustainability page 😂😂😂 recordfg.com/sustainability/ Image
There's lots more... Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 9, 2023
I have deep reservations about this 'people who live near wind farms should get cheap electricity' thing, which has reached a new depth today with a recommendation that they should get free electricity
It would only make sense if people were opposed to having wind farms nearby, and there's a welter of evidence in a range of countries showing that the majority of people aren't opposed (eg sciencedirect.com/science/articl…)
Read 9 tweets
Dec 20, 2022
THREAD: Climate change causes conflict, you say? Well: it's a bit more complex than that
Climate change and other facets of the global environmental crisis raise the risks of conflict and other forms of insecurity. But so do many other things - competition for resources, ethnic tensions, prior conflicts, pandemics...
And there is already a growing security crisis. Over the last 10 years (well before #Covid and Putin's war) the number of state-based armed conflicts, the number of people killed in them and the number of people displaced all roughly doubled
Read 12 tweets
Nov 19, 2022
THREAD: Sparked by Frans @TimmermansEU's remarks that #COP27 could kill off the #ParisAgreement 1.5 Celsius temperature target , a short thread on some realities of 1.5°C
This is also a nod to all those lining up to pontificate that '1.5°C is dead', particularly scientists who make no attempt to clarify that that what they're saying is just their opinion, not fact
Firstly let's look at the #ParisAgreement's wording - to 'hold' warming 'well below 2°C' while 'making efforts' to keep it to 1.5°C. There is no time limit on that 'making efforts'. Governments did not pledge to make efforts until warming exceeds 1.5°C and then stop
Read 18 tweets

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