Let's look at #Ontario's #testing strategy in comparison to countries lauded for best managing #COVID19 (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand). Orange lines are tests, blue lines are cases. We can see, as cases rise, so does testing. When cases come down, tests follow. 1/3
This makes sense. When infections are rising, more people are getting infected & more people are contacts of cases. So more need to be tested. Labs have spare capacity to absorb. Now let's look at Ontario. As cases came down in May/June, tests paradoxically rose & stayed up. 2/3
Today, we see a spike in cases, & predictably, tests are rising. Unlike our better-performing peers, we didn't save capacity for this rainy day. So now test results are slow & line-ups are long. But it isn't too late. We have data on which testing is wasteful. Let's fix this! 3/3
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What's changed is older people, who are more at risk of severe illness, are also more vaccinated. So cases are more likely to be younger people at some lower risk of hospitalizations. Counterbalancing that is #DeltaVariant is ~3 times more likely to cause hospitalization. 2/5
We need modelling to show how this plays out. @DFisman concludes hospitalizations per case will be worse.
Thanks to everyone for their words of support this evening, including the #WeStandWithDrHirji tag. I’m deeply humbled by the volume & breadth of support. More importantly, I’m gratified that so many are speaking up against violent language—such discourse corrodes our unity. 1/6
The excessive anger of a few today should not distract from the suffering of many during this pandemic—of social isolation, of loss of income, of losing a business built through a life’s work. Frustration is understandable. Their tragedies aren’t receiving the attention I am. 2/6
The inequalities of our society have been amplified by the pandemic. We have much to do to create true equality & unity. I hope we can increasingly focus on rectifying this, & continue to reduce inequities after the pandemic is over. 3/6
When the UK reopened from their fall lockdown (graph), cases were still high & variants were able to surge. The UK went back into lockdown within 3 weeks. Germany is learning from this & not reopening early. Today, the Ontario Science Table shows this is a lesson for us too. 1/7
Their modelling shows by mid- to late-March, Ontario could again be seeing record high daily cases. ICU occupancy would start increasing, before hospitals have even had a chance to get under their capacity threshold. Ontario is staring at another possible lockdown in 1 month. 2/7
To avoid this, we need to lower the reproductive number (R) to the equivalent of 0.7 for the current virus (OV); that equates to 1.0 with the new variant (NV). Ontario currently has a R just under 0.9 in lockdown. That equates to 1.26 with the new variant. Cases would surge. 3/7
It's a hot topic why I'm not ordering a requirement to wear #masks at this time. To be clear, in alignment with @WHO, @PHAC_GC, & @CPHO_Canada, I absolutely recommend we wear #FaceCoverings when we can't keep 2 m #PhysicalDistancing. Here are 3 reasons why I don't require it: 1/8
1. Enforcement. A public health order requires a court filing and an appearance before a judge every time one wishes to enforce it on a person/business. An order would be basically unenforceable. If we don't enforce, it's effectively just a recommendation (already done that). 2/8
2. Strength of science. While science increasingly supports #facecoverings are likely effective at slowing #COVID19 spread, research is still weak. E.g. @TheLancet systematic review finds much potential benefit, but only “low certainty” that effective. thelancet.com/journals/lance… 3/8