Thread by @hansthered

Right now the world is changing so quickly, that it's becoming nearly impossible to keep up. I have a theory as to why, but first let's look at some charts with data from @JeffSnider_AIP @100trillionUSD @nic__carter @stlouisfed and @lisaabramowicz1 (@business).

First things first - we were not in a great place before this pandemic. This is true in the USA and globally. Here we see that GDP in Europe has been in decline since 2017.

Source: macrovoices.com/guest-content/…

Over the last 10 years, the rate of GDP growth in China has fallen by 50%.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-grow…

In the USA, debt to GDP has been growing since the 1980s.

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ…

One of the biggest threats to the global economic engine is the fact that more and more global debt is denominated in US Dollars. So if the dollar becomes stronger, it's harder to pay this debt back.

Source: reuters.com/article/us-glo…

The repo market, which hadn't made headlines since 2009 suddenly exploded in Oct 2019.

This sign of stress in the financial system indicates that banks don't trust each other, so the Fed has to step in and add "liquidity" to the market.

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WREPO

And let's not forget, the yield curve inverted in 2019, which has been a very reliable indicator of a coming recession.

Source: newyorkfed.org/research/capit…

Now all this was happening BEFORE the global pandemic. Unfortunately, the number of new cases is still growing very rapidly around the globe.

Source: worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As @lisaabramowicz1 pointed out, ETFs are decoupling from their underlying assets. This is no small matter. This is the largest U.S. Investment grade bond ETF. Ticker: "Yuge?"

Source:

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1238396379485126656

By now I'm sure you've seen this chart, but it bears repeating in this tweetstorm for historical context. First-time unemployment claims just set an all-time high, 4x the old record.

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA

And when someone says "this is not a financial crisis," it might help to remind them that this may not have started as a financial crisis, but it's sure turning into one. Here's the financial stress index, heading right back to 2008 and beyond.

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI2

Some of the most troubling data that we're seeing is that which points to the coming economic slump. When you shut down a factory, you can't get that time back. This is going to drag out. Let's start with China's PMI.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/china/manufact…

Which extends now to Japan, but not yet as dramatic as the Chinese figures.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/japan/manufact…

And the all-important services sector of the USA. No bueno. Remember, 70% of our GDP comes from services and we're still the largest economy in the world.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/united-states/…

So now you hopefully understand why words like "bazooka" are being used to describe monetary and fiscal policy. The Fed isn't to blame for this - rather the Fed is just our scapegoat. They have to print, and print they will.

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

And the only saving grace for the USA is that we own a printing press and the rest of the world is in just as bad (or worse) shape than we are. However, some of this money that's being printed will inevitably make its way into crypto.

Source: brrr.money

As @nic__carter pointed out, stablecoin supply has been growing rapidly.

Source: coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…

And this couldn't possibly come at a more advantageous time for #Bitcoin, which is about to go through its next halving. Literally infinite money is being printed while Bitcoin is becoming more scarce. 47 days...

Source: bitcoinblockhalf.com

As @100trillionUSD has shown, there is a meaningful relationship between the stock to flow ratio of Bitcoin and its price. H/T @saifedean

Source:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1242068166454456322

Big picture now, WTF is going on? I think that this is all part of a much larger phenomenon involving societal change due mostly to the rapid growth of technology.

Source: medium.com/@hansthered/ev…

The world needs Bitcoin for so many reasons. It's not just sound money. It extends to censorship resistance, free speech, strong property rights, privacy, and being anti-fragile. This is what I believe, and it's why I do what I do. #Bitcoin

Source: medium.com/the-challenge/…