Thread by @ThyConsigliori

6 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Just When I Thought I Was Out...

Just one damned chart at Dornsife pulls me back in. Wait till you see today's charts! But first, I have a new poll to introduce to you and I'm so excited.

express.co.uk/news/world/134…

2) To my Democrat friends, I know it may be difficult to trust me when the data I like also shows the projections I desire. We talk about confirmation bias all the time, I know. But we're at a critical juncture in this election, and I have to perpetually seek the strongest data.

3) Please look at this quote from the article above:

"The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from September 30th to October 2nd 2020.

4) "The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads.

5) "To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and cell phone-only households.

6) "The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent."

7) Wow! You truly can believe me when I tell you this. If I'd seen a single poll that well constructed calling for Biden, I'd be seriously concerned about it. And, the honest data scientist in me truly does wish I could just such a poll, and come out in massive support of it.

8) When it comes to credibility, it is far easier to build when calling for the thing you do not want. So it goes...

Now seriously, please read the article, slowly and carefully. This is bedrock solid work. I honestly couldn't be more impressed. First time this season.

9) Now we turn, once again, to Dornsife and the single poll of theirs that I've pulled out and have ongoing interest in. It is their 7-day chart on a single question. Who do you think people in your state will vote for? That's a very fine question.

10) Here's how that chart looks, at their site. One of the things I like most about this chart is the closeness of the data for each campaign. I also like its ups and downs and crossovers. This is what real campaign data looks like.

11) It really is amazing what we can do with data presentation decisions. Work with me on this. The scale range that Dornsife selects goes from a low of 30% to a high of 70%. Please know, there is nothing dictating this other than policy decision.

12) Back in 2016, as well as this season, I've chosen to present their data with a very different scale. That's the first place I want you to look, in studying the 1st of the 4 charts I'm going to share, today. It ranges from 41.5% to 51.5%. Here it is.

13) Where you look, what you allow your eyes and mind to focus on, is a very serious discipline. Ask any guy, tempted to follow a pretty girl with his eyes while on a date with a different pretty girl, what that one act might mean, and you'll get the idea of looking discipline.

14) So, for now, try to just look at the scale of the chart and compare it to the scale of Dornsife's presentation of the exact same data. The math is simple. Their range is 40 points, mine is 10. Now, ask yourself, why would Scopelliti do that? Give it a try. What do you think?

15) I believe my choice literally provides 4X the information. Also, there is a values difference I believe I detect. I WANT volatility. I WANT to see even the slightest changes MOST dramatically represented. I WANT to see the ups and downs and crossovers...LOUDLY!

15) As I read their presentation, the Dornsife folks seek stability, and wish to present the data as movely slowly, languidly, gentle changes of direction almost too unimportant to notice. I say pshaw on that. Give me the wild life in data, every time!

16) We'll come back to the exciting new lines and clarity emerging on this chart in a bit. Let's turn now to the two most clarifying charts I've drawn so far this season. I offer both Biden's and Trump's charts, and at first glance I bet you'll see what I see!

Biden first.

17) Everything is new here! New resistance, support, and, most exciting of all, a new channel! Wow!! Out of all formations, the most important are channels. Here's how I discovered all of this. It was today's small drop that gave me one more test of the new resistance line.

18) Formally, it ONLY has two tests on this line, and I wouldn't usually draw it for that reason. That's actually why I haven't drawn it before today. I saw it hiding there, I did. But with today's test, I was able to average the two points above with that run in the middle.

19) Then, with that new resistance line drawn, I was able to see support on a parallel below and low and behold, this line has 5 tests! 5 mind you. And I could have seen and called this new support line easily as far back as 29 September, but couldn't see it, yet.

20) Data integrity looks like this chart. No, the formations don't pop out instantly, always, although that's such a rush when it happens. But, if you hunt with diligence, the data will show you its nature, its identity. And it will have a message for you. It will speak clearly.

21) For all that, you must always remember than analysis can never be better than the data its based upon. This data may be weak or even completely false. Thing is, you never know. You simply have to take your bet and stand behind it, if you can. And if you can't, then don't.

22) I can't take a stand on this data for reasons I've listed out many times. I can, however, say that when any data starts to speak, I am always the guy to listen. This data is beginning to be interesting. Now, let's turn to Trump!

23) So check this out! This is, and by far, the very most stable formation of the election so far, by way of this particular data. And it looks right. It looks just like 2016 Trump to me. One of the things I love the most is when a long term line holds over long stretches.

24) There's another line in there I'm watching, and I'll be able to talk about that line tomorrow. But look at these two lovely, election period to date lines and that gorgeous channel. As I said about the Biden data, this is what real campaign data looks like. I like it!

25) Neither the Biden nor the Trump charts are quite strong enough to be confident about their respective channels. But neither channel is weak, either. I'd be closer to a call for each if I had more faith in the data itself.

Okay then, moving on...

26) Now let's look again at our chart for both campaigns, as well as the Insignificant Difference Area. One of the things I love to do is focus on the higher candidate's resistance, and the lower candidate's support. Think of this as the battle field.

27) I'm almost tempted to get rid of the Insignificant Difference data, and may well soon. Hell, I just decided. Be right back...

Now that's how data is supposed to look. Clarity begins to emerge.

28) When considering a chart like that, the question is, will the line hold? This is absolutely NO DIFFERENT than any line in combat or sports, such as football, as you see here.

As a chartist, I'm always hunting for lines that will hold.

29) If these new lines are right, and if they hold, then we see the projected crossover point where Trump's resistance line crosses over Biden's. If that happens, you can bet that Bident's will NOT remain on current resistance line, but will drop or plummet. 2016 looked just so.

30) Clearly, then, we're in no place for a data-driven call. This election, by this data, remains far too close to call. However, if these lines are right, then we should know by about October 25. As with all data, new formations come mushroom right up out of thin air, so...

31) In closing for today, let's turn practical. For my Biden supporting friends. Here are some pointers. Keep Biden nice. The move to take down the negative ads was brilliant, and succeeded. The ad about him, his children, and health insurance is great. Keep running that.

32) You have to face that the split between the left and the middle of your party is real, and that means pulling some Trump supporters away. The anti-Trump message is old, now. You have to keep pounding, but it's time to let a new arrow fly. What's Biden's vision?

33) What's more, difficult though this is, Biden needs to hit at the level of goals and policy. He speaks of goals, more as aspirations than goals. He never speaks to policy itself. It is a canard that Trump isn't a policy man. You will pull no Trump votes away pretending that.

34) In tone, it's time to turn from "inevitability" to the request for trust. I've earned your trust for longer than just about anyone else in DC. I'm asking you to trust me again. You know me. You know what I stand for and who I am. Vote for the me you know.

35) That's enough for today. We'll come back to action steps for the Trump people soon.

Gotta love those lines, don't you, and clear, clean, simple formations!

Exciting, isn't it?

Thread ends at #35.