When the Commission threatened legal action on 10 Sept, we thought the Lords would be done with the Internal Market Bill by end of Sept
Number 10 then decided to *not* push for a tight timetable
So the EU then had to use the Article 5 / good faith argument, because the Bill is still to be approved - so breach of the protocol cannot *yet* be used as an argument
If the Lords removes all problematic parts of Internal Market Bill by the end of October, what does the EU do?
And, conversely, if the Lords does *not* amend the Bill substantially, does the Commission then issue a further notice - with breach of the protocol as the argument?
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1️⃣ Force majeure ⚡️🦠 provisions are so wide they’ll mean passengers get stuck and get compensated less - makes 🚊 LESS attractive
2️⃣ Through ticketing 🎫 provisions are ridiculously bad. Only apply to firms and their 100% subsidiaries. This brings no practical benefit *anywhere* and could lead to further erosion of availability of through tickets
3️⃣ That every train must carry 🚲 is a little bit of progress - but just 4 bikes per train is ridiculously low
4️⃣ Reduction of notification period to 24h for persons with reduced mobility 🦽 is a bit of progress - but there should be no notification AT ALL
Note also: negotiations are *not* going to stop as a result of today's announcement, but do up the pressure on the House of Lords. Those changes are reflected in the diagram.
Also an acknowledgement of an error on my part in previous diagrams: I had *wrongly* assumed that as the tone from Brussels has been much more conciliatory for the past few weeks, the EU would *not* take legal action - and hence did not put a number on it...
New #BrexitDiagram in light of news in the last 24h - that Tory rebellion on the Internal Markets Bill was very limited, and that rules of origin for 🚗🛠 are increasingly problematic in negotiations
Headline numbers
(compared with V4.0.0, 29.09.2020 1530)
No Deal - 53% (⬆️ 5%)
Minimal Deal - 38% (⬇️ 6%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬆️ 1%)
(A note on versioning: this is diagram V4.1.0 - it has all the same routes as V4.0.0, but probabilities have been changed)
Why the change?
Probability of an agreement on the substance by mid-October dropping
Probability Lords manages to adequately amend Internal Market Bill dropping (because Tories in Commons more united than expected)
This one changes only the % very fractionally, but better covers the interplay between progress in Brussels and the IM Bill UK side
Headline numbers
(compared with V3.0.0, 29.09.2020 1030)
No Deal - 48% (⬇️ 1%)
Minimal Deal - 44% (⬆️ 1%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (↔️)
Changes mostly due to changed combinations of options in this diagram
Also - as ever - good and thoughtful feedback is very welcome! That was exactly what Simon and Laurens did, and I was happy to integrate their ideas into the diagram!
Make sense of where we are with #Brexit with my latest #BrexitDiagram - Series 5, V3.0.0
Headline numbers
(compared with V2.0.0, 18.09.2020)
No Deal - 49% (⬆️ 3%)
Minimal Deal - 43% (⬆️ 3%)
Party problems for Johnson - 8% (⬇️ 6%)
Essentially rather stable - but threat to remove whip from Tories has receded, hence change to latter
The central point: what does the House of Lords do to the Internal Market Bill, and can the UK side manage to reassure the EU - either by letting the Lords gut the Bill, or by finding an agreement - that can lessen worries on the EU side?