Share this page!

Nate Cohn Profile picture
Twitter logo
7 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Ohio and Nevada, according to new Times/Siena polls.
Biden leads in Ohio by 1 point, 45 to 44 percent.
Biden leads in Nevada by 6 points, 48 to 42 percent.
nytimes.com/2020/10/07/us/…
The polls began on Sat., after the president's diagnosis. FWIW, the president's best interviews were yesterday, after he was released from the hospital, controlling for demog. That said, it's always tough to judge one night--let alone the last night, when we're finishing quotas
Unlike in our FL/PA release, when we had AZ already started heading into the last night of PA/FL interviews, we didn't have another poll under way on Monday to help make this kind of analysis more robust
That said, you can see where we're polling next
nytimes.com/live/2020/pres…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Oct
Over all, I do think the NYT/Siena results in OH/NV and the Marquette Law results for WI are *relatively* good for the president. They're more like the polls we saw before the debate than the Biden>10 type numbers we've seen a lot of lately
Now, I think these are two pretty good pollsters. But we're at the point where the 'good' news for the president is basically the old average, and that's generally a sign things have shifted.
FWIW, I don't see much evidence of nonresponse bias in our polling, or, frankly, even in the polls that do show Biden doing super well. That Biden+12 in PA was D+1 among RVs, after all, and maybe even R+1 among LVs, like our PA poll, @PollsterPatrick ?
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Oct
Probably early afternoon; could even be a big 1PM hour with NYT/Siena in OH/NV and Marquette Law in the Midwest
MULaw will be in Wisconsin, more specifically!
I mean, by now you should probably know that you all have very little ability to predict our results based on this information, but:
OH: R+3 party ID, Trump+8 in recalled '16 vote
NV: D+4 party ID, Clinton+2 in recalled '16 vote
Read 8 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
5 Oct
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race
nytimes.com/2020/10/05/us/…
This is not the first time we've had some better-than-average numbers for the Democrats in Arizona, so I looked a bit under the hood at something potentially material: the number of new voters.
nytimes.com/live/2020/pres…
In our poll, voters without a record of voting in 2016 make up 32% of the electorate, and they break overwhelmingly for Biden--who leads by 2 pts among likely 2016 voters.
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
3 Oct
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to 42.
nytimes.com/2020/10/03/ups…
In an analysis of interviews conducted yesterday, including in Arizona (where a poll is ongoing), there was modest evidence of a shift in Joe Biden's direction after Trump's COVID diagnosis. That said, one day of interviews is not nearly enough to reach any firm conclusions
The shift, though, would be material if confirmed and it was statistically significant, controlling for the demographic and political variables used in weighting. That said, it's still just one day of interviews. We'll have to wait and see here.
Read 11 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
2 Oct
Tomorrow AM: Times/Siena polls in Florida and Pennsylvania
We're still in the field overnight, so finishing touches in the morning and no need to set your alarm, as it seems some of you do.
Started Weds., so post-debate. Who knows what today will mean, though I'll see whether there's any serious sign of movement in the AM (doubt it)
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
30 Sep
What a mess. There was no winner, certainly not the United States. And that makes Biden the winner. He's the frontrunner. It's Trump who needed the win, and I think most anyone would agree, as Chris Wallace said, that the president was largely responsible for the debate.
I don't think Biden was terribly strong, especially after the first half hour. He certainly didn't dispel concerns about age or something. But as I think back on the debate, I can't really think of any clip that's going to reflect too badly on Biden.
On the other hand, I can think of several clips that Trump's going to want back. The post-debate discussion is going to be about him, not Biden. And that's simply not what he needs.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @Nate_Cohn