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8 Oct, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Me and Jane Rickards in @TheEconomist this week look at why it's getting harder, costlier and bloodier to defend Taiwan—and whether America would do so if push came to shove
economist.com/asia/2020/10/1… Image
"of two dozen conscripts [@Scholars_Stage] interviewed, “only one was more confident in Taiwan’s ability to resist China after going through the conscript system.” Less than half of Taiwanese polled in August evinced a willingness to fight if war came"
economist.com/asia/2020/10/1…
'in wargames set five or more years in the future “the United States starts losing people and hardware in the theatre very quickly” says David Ochmanek of RAND. “...we’re unable to project power sufficiently into the battlespace to defeat the invasion"...'
economist.com/asia/2020/10/1… Image
But for all that: "in Congress support for Taiwan is at “new highs”, says @BonnieGlaser ... polls by @CSIS show that Americans broadly support coming to Taiwan’s aid, roughly as much as they support helping South Korea, Japan or Australia"
economist.com/asia/2020/10/1…

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
2 Oct
The essay by @KofmanMichael in this volume is the single most interesting thing I've read on NATO-Russia military questions for a long time. "While in the abstract NATO may appear superior ... in reality Excel spreadsheets don’t fight"
frivarld.se/wp-content/upl…
"The Russian General Staff would not expect the decisive phase of conflict to last beyond 2-3 weeks, at which time most precision-guided munitions would be expended and the war liable to escalate to nuclear employment." frivarld.se/wp-content/upl…
"From a Russian perspective, the initial period of war will be decided by the contest between aerospace assault and aerospace defense, and the ability of the two sides to destroy each other’s critical infrastructure. Ground forces matter little" frivarld.se/wp-content/upl… Image
Read 9 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
30 Sep
New UK 'integrated operating concept'. "Expensive, crewed platforms that we cannot replace and can ill afford to lose will be increasingly vulnerable to swarms of self-coordinating smart munitions perhaps arriving at hypersonic speeds or ... from space" gov.uk/government/pub…
"The economics of warfare are changing the balance between platforms and weapons, and between crewed and uncrewed systems. In short, we face an inflection point between the Industrial Age and the Information Age" gov.uk/government/pub…
"NATO remains central to the pursuit of our strategic end ... But the centrality of NATO does not mean ‘NATO Only’. We must look beyond NATO to other alliances, giving real meaning to interoperability and burden sharing ..." gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
30 Sep
Striking how much time UK chief of defence staff spends on Chinese military capabilities and practices in @Policy_Exchange speech unveiling new integrated operating concept. Cites "Unrestricted Warfare" by two PLA officers. Also name-checks @ASPI_org and @WarOnTheRocks.
Carter: new UK integrated operating concept (IOC): distinguishes between "operating" and "warfighting", and establishes need to compete below threshold of war to deter war. Requires "a campaign posture including continuous operating on our terms and in places of our choosing".
Carter: new UK "posture will be engaged and forward-deployed. Armed forces much more in use, rather that dedicated solely for contingencies, with training and exercises delivered as operations ... the willingness to commit decisively hard capability is essential ..."
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
30 Sep
Some excerpts from the House Armed Services Committee's "Future of Defense Task Force", published this week armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2… @HASCDemocrats @HASCRepublicans
"China represents the most significant economic and national security threat to the United States over the next 20 to 30 years ... Russia’s long-term economic forecast makes its global power likely to recede over the next 20 to 30 years." armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
"Advancements in AI, biotechnology [etc] are making traditional battlefields and boundaries increasingly irrelevant. To remain competitive, the United States must prioritize the development of emerging technologies over ... legacy systems" armedservices.house.gov/_cache/files/2…
Read 8 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
29 Sep
Nagorno-Karabakh: "Neither side has a clear military advantage in the border zone. Military positions and front-line trenches are so close in places that residents can shout to soldiers on the other side." crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
"Settlements in proximity to the trenches render civilians on both sides equally vulnerable. While the prospect of civilian casualties may discourage the sides from using heavy weaponry, it also means that any escalation risks taking a fearsome human toll" crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
"A boast by Azerbaijan’s military amid heightened tensions on 16 July that its new missile system had ample range to reach a Soviet-era nuclear power plant near Yerevan highlighted both the strategic importance of critical infrastructure" crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
28 Sep
"A former rebel who fought in the Syrian civil war told The Times that 150-200 of his colleagues had been recruited by Turkey to fight on the Azerbaijani side"
thetimes.co.uk/article/nagorn…
"there had been no extra training, as the men were regarded as battle-hardened from years of conflict against pro-Assad forces.. contracts were for either three or six months. The fighters were told they would be used as guards, police officers & fighters"
thetimes.co.uk/article/nagorn…
And in the Guardian. "Syrian rebel fighters have signed up to work for a private Turkish security company as border guards in Azerbaijan, several volunteers in Syria’s last rebel stronghold have said" amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
Read 4 tweets

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