A third of businesses still believe the #Brexit transition period will be extended says @cabinetofficeuk perm sec - this has always been big issue with preps: however good they are, they must be communicated effectively to business /1

@cabinetofficeuk And the fact that a third of businesses still think there will be an extension just shows you how hard that is - some are just busy with #COVID19 others as Chisolm says just don't believe warnings any more after all the false starts/2
@cabinetofficeuk And as we've seen with trying to get industry to hire and train customs agents, the govt/whitehall can't operate in a vacuum.

No good just launching a £50m grant scheme without trying to understand industry views of risk & appetite to hire during #COVID19 times /3
@cabinetofficeuk Adam Marshall @BCCAdam of British Chambers always says that it takes a year for business to even hear of a new idea, a year to taken on board new requirements and then one or two more to implement and adjust. We have less than 100 days to #Brexit /4
@cabinetofficeuk @BCCAdam Of course Government does need to be ready itself to give biz a fighting chance...but with less than 100 days to go the exporting customs interface Goods Vehicle Movement System is still not rolled out! France had built & tested its "SI Brexit" ro-ro system by last year. /5
@cabinetofficeuk @BCCAdam The govt will do best to manage flows; show flex and it has given itself until July to make it happen for imports (and who would bet against further extensions) - note that many up-country inspection parks don't yet have planning permission! /6
@cabinetofficeuk @BCCAdam I am not actually a total doomster. There will be disruption, but not total chaos as suspect in a deal both sides will do quite a lot to make it work...In a 'no deal'?...well, all bets are off. Especially if @BorisJohnson puts those UKIM clauses into law. We need a deal. ENDS

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More from @pmdfoster

5 Oct
A worrying bellwether for 'Global Britain'? Analysis of Horizon2020 grants by @ben_osswald
@jochenpierk shows that UK business international collaborations via the program DOWN by nearly 50% - while other EU nations are UP - my latest via @ft /2

@ben_osswald @jochenpierk @FT You can read the whole paper here, but below is a key chart for what they found on business collaborations - UK had 15,900 international research partners in Europe in 2016...that figure had fallen to 8,300 by 2019 /2

@ben_osswald @jochenpierk @FT At the same time - see raw data table below - collaboration of the three major advanced EU economies (France, Germany, Italy) all went up by between a third and a quarter. /3
Read 8 tweets
2 Oct
So. End of another long #brexit trade negotiations week...which ended in more stalemate over fish and LPF/subsidies...but it is subsidies where it's really fundamentally stuck, it seems. And that's important, because the 'state aid' row is really a proxy #Brexit as a whole 1/
No surprises that we're still stuck at the "no breakthoughs, but no breakdown" equilibrium...but the meeting with @BorisJohnson and @vonderleyen will be critical. The UK have wanted to escalate beyond @MichelBarnier, the question is what they'll find now they've got there. /2
@BorisJohnson @vonderleyen @MichelBarnier In a nutshell this comes down to how many strings must come attached to a 'zero tariff, zero quota' Free Trade Agreement - the UK says the single market is going behind a customs barrier, so the EU really can't demand these kind of LPF strings./3
Read 20 tweets
30 Sep
Today in a leaked letter Lord Frost concedes that EU will not give UK preferential trade terms to UK cars...but that is not what @BorisJohnson
promised on 2019 election trail. So does that matter? 1/thread

@BorisJohnson First the letter (that was first reported by @faisalislam) which tl;dr says "we asked for preferential terms, the EU said no"....

This relates particularly to so-called 'rules of origin' - the need for a car to be 45% UK-made to get 0-tariff access to EU under an FTA/2
@BorisJohnson @faisalislam The problem, as @Petercampbell1 points out is that companies like Nissan and Toyota use parts from Japan and the EU won't let those count or "cross-cumulate" as UK-inputs....not that that should come as any surprise. /3
Read 13 tweets
30 Sep
Where ⁦@faisalislam⁩ reveals (no surprise) that EU won’t allow UK to count Japanese or Turkish parts as British when exporting to EU - per ⁦⁦@DavidGHFrost⁩ letter to industry - interesting optically because...1/ bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
On the substance this is no surprise - @MichelBarnier been clear all along that U.K. can’t be allowed to become a “manufacturing hub” off the coast of Europe - free of EU rules, but free to benefit. (#Brexit means Brexit, mon brave)/2
But the timing is interesting. It is one hand a confession of failure, but also an acceptance of it - “Brexit means Brexit, chaps, just like we always said”...

If you were pessimistic you’d see this as part of the ongoing “pivot to sovereignty” which underpins U.K. approach/3
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
🚨🍞🧅🍖🧀🐏🐂🐓🚨Q: are there enough vets to deal with Brexit food exports red tape after Jan 1??? Govt says yes...industry and vets not so sure. My latest via @FT 1/thread
@FT Why do we need vets? Because deal or no deal all agrifood produce going to EU (or NI) will need an "export health certificate"...that requires a 'wet stamp' from an Official Veterinarian at a cost of £200-£900. /2
@FT The government estimates that the number of EHCs could increase from 60,000 now to anywhere from 100,000 to 300,000 - that's a huge spread, and it speak to uncertainty on this issue. /3
Read 13 tweets
25 Sep
So. Fascinating 'come on' to Brussels from @JGForsyth in his Times column today...saying a deal is within "touching distance".

That's optimistic (on substance) but interesting to see UK pushing for a 'tunnel' - and "pitch-rolling" to backbenches 1/

@JGForsyth So first the 'come on' - Per UK side to JG "we really need to begin the intensive talks to resolve the final tricky issues."

There is talk of an October 'tunnel' before EUCO - but ONLY if UK a) UK restores trust after law-breaking threats & b) and landing zone is in sight /2
@JGForsyth So on the 'trust' front there are signs that UK realises that it totally overcooked it - but "the gun remains on the table". So before a tunnel something still needs to be done on that - like agree that the over-write "notwithstanding clauses" fall in ping-pong. /3
Read 18 tweets

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