Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:
1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. Miscellaneous: ICU, France & Spain, GB Dec
#ahcveng
1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. Miscellaneous: ICU, France & Spain, GB Dec
#ahcveng
1a. Incidence
Zoe (KCL CSS) suggests incidence is slowing after a steep rise, whereas ONS and Imperial (REACT1) show sharp recent rise.
covid.joinzoe.com/data
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Zoe (KCL CSS) suggests incidence is slowing after a steep rise, whereas ONS and Imperial (REACT1) show sharp recent rise.
covid.joinzoe.com/data
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
1b. Incidence
Note sharp age distinction in ONS / REACT1; if you favour the "GB Declaration" approach (see below) you would want the difference between young and old incidence and trajectory as great as possible
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Note sharp age distinction in ONS / REACT1; if you favour the "GB Declaration" approach (see below) you would want the difference between young and old incidence and trajectory as great as possible
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
1c. Geographical incidence
Very sharp distinction in trajectories in North & South.
London a particular puzzle; is a significant degree of immunithy the most parsimonious explanation?
Any evidence that lockdowns up north have worked? Not much sign.
Sources: REACT1 / ONS
Very sharp distinction in trajectories in North & South.
London a particular puzzle; is a significant degree of immunithy the most parsimonious explanation?
Any evidence that lockdowns up north have worked? Not much sign.
Sources: REACT1 / ONS
2. Care home outbreaks
Up again in week 40; still account for a significant % of institutional outbreaks (dwarfing hospitality, which is negligible).
Source: weekly PHE surveillance report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Admissions: england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
Up again in week 40; still account for a significant % of institutional outbreaks (dwarfing hospitality, which is negligible).
Source: weekly PHE surveillance report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Admissions: england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
3. Hospital & ICU admissions & deaths
Covid admissions: admissions rising linearly (*not* exponentially), NW & NE/Yorks are 60% of total, i.e. most of the 2nd wave; ICU now declining?: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?are…
Covid deaths from NHS England stats: england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
Covid admissions: admissions rising linearly (*not* exponentially), NW & NE/Yorks are 60% of total, i.e. most of the 2nd wave; ICU now declining?: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?are…
Covid deaths from NHS England stats: england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…
Note that hospital admissions include hospital-acquired infections, which seem to be a thing again.
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
https://twitter.com/jadenozzz/status/1314612139714318338?s=20
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
4. Covid triage
111 triage (calls & online) should be a lead indicator for hospitalisations, in the vulnerable over 70s.
digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…
111 triage (calls & online) should be a lead indicator for hospitalisations, in the vulnerable over 70s.
digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…
5. Cases - i.e. positive tests
Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks. Seemingly driven to a great extent by universities, schools and colleges; if this is true should calm down before too long.
Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType…
Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks. Seemingly driven to a great extent by universities, schools and colleges; if this is true should calm down before too long.
Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType…
6. Contact tracing
A waste of money: around 550k 'contacts' now identified, most of them our own housemates and guests we would tell anyway, and only around 10% of whom isolate anyway: at a cost of £12bn.
Around £20k per isolating contact per day.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
A waste of money: around 550k 'contacts' now identified, most of them our own housemates and guests we would tell anyway, and only around 10% of whom isolate anyway: at a cost of £12bn.
Around £20k per isolating contact per day.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
7. Mortality
2019 was a very low-mortality year (as with Sweden); almost as far below trend as 2020 is above it.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
2019 was a very low-mortality year (as with Sweden); almost as far below trend as 2020 is above it.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
8a. Miscellaneous - ICU
New ICNARC report published on ICU cohort & outcomes in UK: icnarc.org/DataServices/A…
Good write-up 👉
New ICNARC report published on ICU cohort & outcomes in UK: icnarc.org/DataServices/A…
Good write-up 👉
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1314583866276024320?s=20
8b. Miscellaneous - France / Spain
Both look to have slowed out or even turned a corner.
Both look to have slowed out or even turned a corner.
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1314551745650012160?s=20
https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1314612120567386113?s=20
8c. Miscellaneous - GB Dec
The "Great Barrington Declaration", a good summary of the strategy of moving from suppression to targeted protection of the vulnerable, drawn up and endorsed by epidemiologists from the world's great universities.
gbdeclaration.org
The "Great Barrington Declaration", a good summary of the strategy of moving from suppression to targeted protection of the vulnerable, drawn up and endorsed by epidemiologists from the world's great universities.
gbdeclaration.org
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