Thread by @ArtfulDoctor

Going to miss these weekly @PHE_uk Surveillance reports. Very helpful data to contextualise the current status of cases, ethnicity, age and location.
Helpful international data too

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
👇

This helped me understand why with the surge of cases we’re not yet seeing the surges in Admissions & Mortality at the rate observed in Spring.
It also helped to show its fine for my 5 year old to go to school!

Weekly test positivity was a helpful context to illustrate cases are genuinely rising, rather than the argument:
We’re seeing more cases because our testing capacity has gone up.
The % of tests positive are consistently rising across Pillar 1 (NHS & PHE testing) & 2(community)

Cumulative totals helped me contextualise our local Area of concern status in the West Midlands, alongside planning my family break to Dorset.

Also helped me discover where to place Leicester on a map.
Eyes are just drawn to that spot.

Weekly case rates also helpful to illustrate what’s happening now:
👉the significant North-South divide,
👉why I’d travel to Dorset again,
👉now I can instantly find Nottingham on a map too.

While at first glance complicated, this helps to show its not a regional issue that cases are highest in the 20-29 age range.

...but we are seeing regional differences in ethnicity and COVID across England.
Conversations with patients can be tailored to highlight the local demographics for our BAME communities, in particular with our Pakistani families here in the West Midlands.

...and Deprivation will be part of those conversations too.
As if this wasn’t sadly so well known.

A key concept for me and through however long we have to go through this pandemic is Excess all-cause mortality.
Whether this escalates above the normal winter rise will be the key measure of how successful our strategies are.
(Duly acknowledging huge uncountable morbidity)

The international story so far and current high-incidence nations completes the final version of the Surveillance report.

Thankyou @PHE_uk for this valuable service; it’s highly appreciated.
The NIHP has high standards to follow.

@threadreaderapp unroll please.