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Aaron Derfel

6 Oct, 16 tweets, 8 min read

1) More than a month after the school year started, Quebec will require high school students in red zones to wear masks in class as of Thursday. But that won’t be mandated for primary school children. In this thread, I will argue why children in this age group should wear masks.

2) Dr. Richard Massé, a public health advisor to the government, acknowledged that “there is some transmission (of the #coronavirus) in primary schools, but it’s much more limited than what we see in secondary schools.” Massé did not cite any statistics to back up his assertion.

3) In the absence of stats from the government, let me provide some #COVID19 figures by age group drawn from the Montreal public health department from Aug. 25, just before the start of the school year, until the most recent date available, Oct. 4. The stats are quite revealing.

4) First, the stats show that the age group that's posted the fewest #COVID19 cases in Montreal since Aug. 25 are those who are at least 80 years old: 120 new infections. The number of positive results in that demographic grew by just 1.74%, the lowest increase of any age group.

5) In contrast, the demographic posting the greatest number of cases is aged 20 to 29. This group recorded 1,707 #COVID cases during this period. Unlike the increase of 1.74% by the oldest group, this demographic reported a rise of 41.2% — what was expected by health authorities.

6) This suggests transmission of the #coronavirus is now much more heightened among 20-to-29-year-olds than among those aged at least 80. But there are two other demographics that are observing even greater percentage increases: elementary and high school students.

7) The group aged 10 to 19 (mostly high school students) reported 731 positive #COVID results since Aug. 25 — an increase of 58.15%. This suggests that #coronavirus transmission is occurring at a faster rate in this group than among those aged 20 to 29.

8) The demographic aged 5 to 9 (mostly primary students) counted 152 new #COVID cases during this period — an increase of 42.94%. On Sept. 30, the increase in new cases in that group was 28.53%. Thus, #coronavirus transmission is picking up speed in this younger demographic.

9) Lest anyone argue that the absolute number of new cases in this cohort is relatively insignificant, please note that during a nearly 11-week period over the summer, the number of new cases among 5- to 9-year-olds in Montreal was just 74, or an increase of 26.43%.

10) Please reveiw the chart below that shows the increases in #COVID19 cases among all age groups over the past six weeks in Montreal. The data suggest that at the very least Quebec should adopt the Ontario model of requiring that students in Grades 4 to 6 up wear face coverings.

11) Epidemiologist Zoë Hyde, an expert on the subject, had this to say Sunday: “Measures must be taken to…reduce the risk of transmission in schools. At a minimum, this should include the use of face masks by staff and students (including both primary and high school students).”

12) In addition to requiring masks among high school students, Premier François Legault authorized the Health Canada #COVIDAlert notification app Monday. It took a massive resurgence in Quebec for the government to finally act. Why wait for outbreaks in elementary schools to act?

13) Meanwhile, Montreal might be in danger of surpassing the first wave of the #pandemic in new cases. The metropolis’s seven-day average rose to 160.33 #COVID19 cases per million population Monday, amid an uptick in hospitalizations. See the chart below.

14) At the neighborhood level, #COVID19 continues to surge in the centre of the city as well as in the east end of the island of Montreal, as the chart below indicates. The north end of the city is also of concern, a little less so in some parts of the West Island.

15) Finally, Montreal added one more #COVID19 fatality Monday to a death toll that's reached 3,484, higher than those of Portugal (2,018), Austria (818) and South Korea (422) combined. End of thread. Please stay safe, wear a mask in public and maintain #SocialDistancing.

@CovidEcoles

Addendum: According to information I just received tonight from @CovidEcoles, 375 elementary schools across Quebec reported at least one case to date as of last Saturday. In Montreal, it's 104.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

7 Oct

1) Quebec is now beset with more than 500 #COVID19 outbreaks as the province posted a record 1,364 infections on Tuesday amid an upswing in hospitalizations and deaths. In this thread, I will assess whether the second wave in the #pandemic may prove more dangerous than the first.

2) Certainly, the potential is there for a more dangerous second wave. That’s because unlike the shutdown of the first wave, schools have reopened, and many businesses are still operating. At the same time, Quebec’s health-care system is stretched to the limit as never before.

3) And as the weather grows colder, more people will congregate indoors, providing the opportunity for the contagious #coronavirus to spread more easily. In November, the annual flu season will be upon us, raising the prospect of a Twindemic — #COVID19 coupled with the flu.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

5 Oct

1) On the eve of Quebec’s announcement Monday that it will impose new restrictions in the #pandemic, a quarter of the province’s schools on Sunday night have declared at least one case of #COVID19 among students and staff. In this thread, I will revisit the topic of schools.

2) As of 9:44 p.m., 767 of the province's 3,000 schools have at least one infection, according to covidecolesquebec.org. On the island of Montreal, 10 schools have reported at least five cases each. But authorities last week confirmed at least 30 school outbreaks in the city.

3) However, the extent of the #COVID contagion in schools is not fully known because authorities aren't systematically screening students, as they are in Germany. Even in classes where a student has tested positive, not every pupil is screened. It differs from school to school.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Oct

1) For three days in late June, Montreal reported no new cases of #COVID19 — a stunning turnaround in the #pandemic. But for the past three days this fall, the metropolis’s daily tally has averaged 362 cases. What went wrong? In this thread, I will offer possible explanations.

2) First, let me reiterate it’s highly unlikely, as Quebec’s public health officer suggested Sept. 26, the province has been hit harder by a second wave than elsewhere in Canada because of a more “invasive” and “lethal” #coronavirus strain. Other provinces have this strain, too.

3) Second, it was not inevitable that Quebec should be so hard hit during the second wave, especially given its tragic experience with the first one. British Columbia, after observing an increase in August, has managed to lower its incidence rate recently. See the chart below.

Read 17 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Oct

1) As the daily number of #COVID19 infections crossed the thousand-case threshold in Quebec on Friday — the highest since the peak of the first wave — it’s clear the province is now fighting a multi-front war on the #pandemic. In this thread, I will elaborate on those fronts.

2) Let’s start with a surge in #COVID19 outbreaks in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) and seniors’ residences (RPAs) across the province. Clusters have been identified in more than 30 such facilities, with two dozen infections confirmed in the past 24 hours among the elderly.

3) The hardest-hit nursing homes are in Chaudière-Appalaches, the Capitale-Nationale, Outaouais and the Gaspé — regions largely spared during the #pandemic’s first wave. Eldercare centres have also been affected in the Eastern Townships, the Laurentians, Laval and Montreal.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Oct

1) Quebec declared 16 more #COVID19 fatalities Thursday, raising the province’s death toll to 5,850. Premier François Legault cited the upswing in deaths as one of the signs the #pandemic has reached a critical point. In this thread, I will try to explain what this signifies.

2) First, Thursday’s tally of #COVID19 deaths is far from the more than 140 a day the province was recording during the peak of the #pandemic's first wave. Still, it’s noteworthy because the last time Quebec posted a higher total was more than two months ago, on July 3, with 19.

3) In recent days, it’s Quebec City and not Montreal that's been observing more #COVID19 deaths. On Thursday, the metropolis added one fatality to a #pandemic death toll that's climbed to 3,481, greater than Switzerland's (2,074), which has roughly the same population as Quebec.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

1 Oct

1) Since the start of the school year, the two demographics that have been observing the sharpest percentage increases in positive #COVID19 test results are elementary and high school students, according to the latest data by the Montreal public health department. Let me explain.

2) Over the summer and during the second #pandemic wave, authorities have determined that young adults are driving community transmission of the #coronavirus. In Montreal, public health director Mylène Drouin has broadened the age group to include those aged 18 t 34.

3) These individuals have been inadvertently spreading the #coronavirus in the workplace and during private gatherings, Drouin has explained. This is all true. But since Aug. 25, the highly contagious pathogen has been infecting children at a faster rate. Let me show the stats.

Read 13 tweets

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