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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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11 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Red Team in the Netherlands lays it out perfectly

"Will we celebrate New Year's together?"

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(Use translate click)
This figure is super important, showing the way different policies lead to different amounts of time till the goal is achieved. A bit more effort makes all the difference.

They recommend to aim for R=0.7 -- achievable and effective.

(note: R=0.5 is also possible)

"When the virus is under control, people have freedom and the economy thrives"

The red team is a powerhouse. Here is their website for more information including position papers and media presentations, core team members, and expanding community

c19redteam.nl
And this is a great graphic!

Thanks @CrisisNed20

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
13 Oct
We are already paying the price of the perpetual soft lockdown, and opening and closing the economy, because we can’t open up without causing so many cases that we have to shut down again anyway.

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Let’s be clear: Without a strong lockdown we can’t reverse the increases that happen when we try to open up.

2/
If we are determined to get to zero we can then open up. COVID free Green zone by green zone, it doesn’t take very long when the effort is in the right direction.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
12 Oct
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”

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Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.

imf.org/en/Publication…

A few more quotes:

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“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
11 Oct
Breaking: Coronavirus Update

US yesterday 57,420, highest since mid-August. Canada yesterday 2,895, a new record for daily infections. Quebec, Ontario, Alberta all on the rise and surpassed their first peaks back in April.
Total cases in India surpass 7 million today, closing in on the US. In the meanwhile, India's daily infections have been declining for 4 weeks, now at 72k.
Russia yesterday 11,969, surpassing its peak back in May and set new record. The average daily death toll also surpassed the peak of first wave.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Oct
Proven by evidence: Evidence based science is like standing on a train track facing east saying: I won’t turn around until you prove to me there is a train coming from the west.

1/
Examples:

1) Not testing for COVID in places that didn’t previously have known cases of COVID.
2) Treating COVID like flu until hospitals are overwhelmed.
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Oct
Rowing 1 mile up the river, while flow is 1 mile per hour downstream.

If your rowing speed is 1.1 mi/hr how long does it take and how far did you really row?

If your rowing speed is 2 mi/hr how long does it take and how far did you really row?

(Solution will follow shortly)
Answer:

1 mile relative to land
11 miles of rowing for 1.1 mi/hr
2 miles of rowing for 2 mi/hr
Calculation in next tweets.

Strong action saves time and effort.
Case 1: For Rowing speed 1.1 mi/hr

Speed relative to land is rowing speed relative to water plus water speed (which is negative = - 1 mi/hr)

Speed relative to land = 1.1 mi/hr - 1 mi/hr = 0.1 mi/hr.

Total time is 1 mile / (0.1 mi/hr) = 10 hr

..
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Oct
Introducing:

The Independent Scientific Advisory Group (ISAG) a voluntary and independent expert group from Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and abroad, advocating a SARS-CoV-2 elimination strategy for the island of Ireland.

isagcovid19.org

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“The prospect of further illness, deaths and long-term consequences from COVID-19 in the coming months, and possibly years, is unacceptable..

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We therefore, urge the Irish and Northern Irish governments to adopt a COVID-19 strategy with the overarching objective of eliminating the virus from Ireland..

3/
Read 9 tweets

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