Clearly no Brexit trade deal ready by 15 Oct as the PM has wanted BUT talks continue apace. This week in Brussels (Monday to Wednesday) focussing on fish and level playing field (including governance) in particular /1
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will brief Europe Ministers of the 27 member states (or as many of them as attend tomorrow’s General Affairs Council). This ahead of the EU leaders summit in Brussels this Thurs and Friday where #Brexit will be discussed amongst others topics /2
EU expectation is that France will play hardball as it did in Brexit divorce negotiations last year. But France is not only fishing state afraid of losing quotas in UK waters. France also not alone in worrying about what EU sees as ‘fair competition’ rules in exchange /3
for the U.K. getting zero tariff zero quota access to the single market. NB While most in EU recognise the U.K. post Brexit can’t/won’t sign up to Brussels rules in perpetuity the EU will insist on at least signing up to mutually agreed norms/principles /4
On state aid, environment, labour regulations etc. Brussels also insisting on robust dispute mechanism (esp after Internal Mkt Bill surprise) to take swift, weighty legal action if treaty terms breached by either side /5
If that is agreed, EU thinking is that its coastal states will compromise considerably on fish. This won’t all happen this week clearly. EU expectation is IF deal emerges, it’ll be (mid, even late) November /6
As predicted early in negotiations, the risk UK and EU took in leaving the big issues till the last moment this autumn (and of course each side blames the other for doing that) is that #COVID19 is back with a vengeance /7
Domestic necessities are sucking up leaders time/attention eg Boris Johnson’s big statement today; Macron’s expected on Weds.This when political leaders do need to lend attention to Brexit to approve uncomfortable compromises neededboth sides of Channel if deal is to be reached/8
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