Promoting fake herd immunity concepts and other forms of weaponized science communication/disinformation will damage global public health, and maybe degenerate further into human rights violations. nytimes.com/live/2020/10/1…
We haven't seen too many examples of true herd immunity for #COVID19, possibly one of the first is in Manaus, Amazonas State #Brasil where it reached 66% medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Extrapolating to the US: By invoking "herd immunity" we could easily increase our current 200,000 deaths by a factor X6 or more - 1 million deaths. Our vulnerable time is late fall 2020, winter 2021 = lame duck post election period. White House parting gift to the American people
Thread on POTUS therapies: Being asked about mab cocktail from Regeneron and remdesivir and what it means?
I think a key point is that use of antiviral drugs, if they are to be effective likely must be administered early in the course of the illness during viral replication.
"Watch and wait" not an option, if you are going to do it and maximize the effectiveness of these two interventions you pretty much either do it now or not at all. Later you may need to deal with host cytokine, inflammatory responses, in which case there are separate agents.
So I'm sure it was a tough call, but given what we know about coronaviruses, our work over the last 10 years shows how virus neutralizing antibodies are paramount in fighting the infection. Most vaccines work by this principle, including our SARS1, MERS, now COVID19 vaccines.
Some of my talking points for this week (Sept 27-Oct 3):
1. Autumn-Winter surge may be starting now in the US, possibly we're already seeing this in upper Midwest, WI, ND, SD, IA
2/3 Thread:
2. The cold states may be especially susceptible this fall, reasons of "double indemnity" (idea from @PolicyLabCHOP):
People indoors more + Higher virus inoculum, virus does better in the cold...
3/3 Thread:
3. Take whichever vaccine you can as they become available in 2021. My reason: Priority to get some virus neutralizing antibodies into your system. Even if it's not the best vaccine, it's likely you can get boosted with better vaccines later in the year or in 2022.
What would I say (as someone who has been a lead target of anti-science disinformation campaigns around vaccines, and has a front seat to their nefarious activities)? What we see from Wash DC + White House in 2020 exhibits the key elements of a similar disinformation initiative
As we recently stated in our @TheLancet Commission on #COVID19, what's happening in Wash DC, also resembles the elements of disinformation in #Brasil#Philippines...
...political leaders “simplifying the pandemic by downplaying its impacts or touting easy solutions or treatments, spectacularizing their responses to crisis, forging divisions between the ‘people’ and dangerous ‘others’, and making medical knowledge claims to support the above"
It was a tough time: This spring summer I saw a deliberate anti-science disinformation campaign emerging from the White House, and how it was both targeting scientists (me) and decimating Hispanic and other low-income communities. To say nothing I felt was morally indefensible
I’m in a scary place, definitely out of my comfort zone, but having the support of my family and the scientific community (including many govt scientists who feel similarly threatened), gives me a lot courage to keep going.
Back in May in a paper published in @MicrobesInfect I predicted the attacks on science and scientists would escalate in the weeks prior to the 2020 US presidential election, and pretty much that’s what’s happening.
Thread 2/10: Some large particles settle out of the air quickly because of gravity (2 m [6 ft] distancing rule), but majority are smaller particles that stay aloft travel beyond 2 m (6 ft)...large outdoor events often preceded or followed by indoor crowds at bars pubs restaurants
Thread 3/10: ...failure to control the pandemic is a style of political leadership that has been termed medical populism, political leaders “simplifying the pandemic by downplaying its impacts or touting easy solutions or treatments, spectacularizing their responses to crisis..."