1/5 Georgia votes in a key parliamentary election on Oct. 31. If you missed @Carnegie_Europe excellent (if quite bleak!) discussion on #GVote20 with Giorgi Gogsadze, Salome Asatiani and Stephen Jones, watch here. Some key points:
2/5 Consensus: Despite progress, Georgia is still not a consolidated democracy. Ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party led by Bidzina Ivanishvili commands massive resources and is likely to win unprecedented third term. Parliament likely to have “raucous but not united” opposition.
3/5 Gogsadze: New electoral rules mean 120/150 seats decided proportionally, 1% threshold of entry to parliament. Quota of women means at least 30 female MPs. Coalition possible but GD predicted to win 45-50% of seats. Had big boost from good handling of pandemic.
4/5 Asatiani: Can Georgia end tradition of “monstrosity” of one party dominating state? Unlikely. In 2012 system centred around one individual (Saakashvili), was unexpectedly handed to another (Ivanishvili). Biggest missed opportunity since 2012 is lack of judicial reform.
5/5 Jones: Elections in post-Soviet space generally do not deliver democracy--protests after elections more likely to. Georgia fits the pattern. Big economic problems, so why no strong left-of-centre party? Partly due to Soviet legacy, yet G had social-democratic govt in 1918.
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