Thread by @TUmarov

1/6 Emomali Rahmon managed to get reelected for yet another term without any mass protests or other hitches. The regime in Tajikistan has fused so closely w/ his extensive family that neither a new generation nor the Covid-19 pandemic can dent his power.

carnegie.ru/commentary/829…

2/6 But it'll be difficult for him to complete his 5 term in entirety. It’s impossible to predict what difficulties may arise for the regime, and as he gets older, it will get harder for Rahmon to cling onto power.

3/6 Rahmon will most likely follow the example of his Kazakh counterpart in a few years’ time, and step down from the presidency. Unlike the transition in Kazakhstan, however, in Tajikistan, the succession will be a family affair.

4/6 Rahmon has long been preparing his eldest son Rustam for the presidency. Having had a reputation in his younger days as a spoiled and extravagant partygoer, Rustam is now considered a moderate liberal and technocrat.

5/6 Yet there are still obstacles that Rahmon junior must overcome to take power. Other relatives might oppose his candidacy, and the leaders of neighboring countries might not take him seriously on account of his youth.

6/6 For now, the elder Rahmon is managing to keep a tight grip on both the country and the ruling clan, but there are no guarantees that his son will be able to do the same so successfully and for so long.

Here's my take for @CarnegieRussia: carnegie.ru/commentary/829…