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Aaron Derfel

17 Oct, 10 tweets, 7 min read

1) Nearly three weeks after Quebec imposed a partial lockdown in the #pandemic, #COVID19 outbreaks are nonetheless multiplying across the province in a wider range of settings. In this thread, I will elaborate on the growing clusters of cases in the second wave.

2) Twenty employees at the Davie shipyard in Lévis have contracted #COVID19. In Trois Rivières, a guard and an inmate have tested positive for the #coronavirus at a detention centre. In Laval, a tennis club has closed temporarily after two outbreaks infecting at least 30 people.

3) On Friday, McDonald’s announced it’s shut three Montreal-area restaurants after employees tested positive, raising the total number to five this week. A seniors’ residence in Saint-Charles Borromée reported 32 #COVID19 infections in the past 24 hours. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

4) The Education Ministry revealed Friday afternoon that the number of classes shuttered across Quebec due to #COVID19 exposure rose by five to 1,053. The number of schools declaring at least one #COVID19 case climbed by 15 to at least 1,041, according to covidecolesquebec.org.

5) Perhaps because of this proliferation of outbreaks Quebec’s public health institute warned Friday that the current #pandemic measures are not enough to prevent a projected spike in #COVID19 hospitalizations that could rise to 125 a day in December. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

6) At the McGill University Health Centre, doctors are bracing for more #COVID19 patients. The chart below shows the beginning of what looks like a second wave of hospitalizations at the MUHC, with nine patients in the intensive-care units and 17 on #COVID19 wards.

7) Meanwhile, Montreal added five #COVID19 fatalities Friday to a death toll that has climbed to 3,506. The chart below shows a cluster of deaths in the past two weeks. By comparison, more populous Toronto posted one death on Friday, raising its cumulative total to 1,573.

8) Although Montreal’s seven-day average dipped to 127 #COVID19 cases per million population from 133 the day before, this incidence is still very high, with transmission of the #coronavirus occurring overwhelmingly in the community. The city also recorded another 250 cases.

9) Reacting to the latest #COVID19 projections, Health Minister Christian Dubé ruled out imposing any new measures. Instead, he urged Quebecers to reduce their social contacts — an appeal he has made frequently in the past three weeks. That’s the plan for now.

10) What more will it take for the government to strengthen its #COVID19 plans, boost contact tracing and protect the province’s schools? The health minister said the next two weeks will be critical. On that score, he’s correct. End of thread. Please stay safe, everyone.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

18 Oct

1) With #COVID19 cases rising for the past four days, it may be premature to draw the conclusion that the second wave is plateauing in Quebec, as Premier François Legault suggests. In this thread, I will call for a more rapid response to contact tracing. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

2) The latest #COVID19 surge suggests there are limits to the government’s partial lockdown. In its #pandemic projections released Friday, Quebec’s public health institute warned that current measures are not enough to prevent a spike in hospitalizations. So what is the solution?

3) Certainly, the solution isn’t to proceed with the yo-yo rhythm of easing #pandemic restrictions, only to reimpose a partial lockdown for months to come until a #COVID19 vaccine becomes widely available. I'm told Health Minister Christian Dubé is wary of the yo-yo effect, too.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

16 Oct

1) Quebec crossed a sombre milestone Thursday, declaring more than 6,000 deaths in the #pandemic, 15 more than all of Sweden, a nation with a population that is 1.7 million greater than the province’s. In this thread, I will highlight some other grim milestones.

2) Also Thursday, the province crossed the thousand-mark in the number of schools reporting either a student or teacher testing positive for the #coronavirus, according to covidecolesquebec.org. In some schools, there are so many cases officials can’t keep track of all of them.

3) Again on Thursday, Montreal crossed the 4,000-case milestone of new #coronavirus infections in just the past two weeks. That tally in the second wave represents nearly 11% of all of the city’s cases since the World Health Organization declared #COVID19 a #pandemic on March 11.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

15 Oct

1) In the past two weeks, the number of Quebec classrooms that have closed due to #COVID19 exposure has soared by 70%. Yet Premier François Legault has ruled out reducing class sizes. In this thread, I will examine the #pandemic’s impact on the educational system thus far.

2) The number of shuttered classes climbed to 1,075 on Oct.13 from 631 on Sept. 30. The number of active #COVID19 cases among school employees jumped to 336 from 187 — an increase of nearly 80%. The number of active cases among students rose to 1,684 from 1,050 (up by 60%).

3) Clearly, the #pandemic is straining the resources of the educational system. The government has not released data on the number of schools that have closed, but in Montreal in the past few days two private high schools have shut down for two weeks following #COVID19 outbreaks.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

14 Oct

1) Although Quebec observed its fourth daily decline in new #COVID19 cases on Tuesday, the pandemic is beginning to take a toll on the acute-care hospital system, schools and the workplace. In this thread, I will examine those impacts in the provincial capital and in Montreal.

2) After treating relatively few #COVID19 patients in August and September, the McGill University Health Centre is now grappling with a resurgence, as the chart below makes clear. Total hospitalizations have crept up to 21, along with intensive-care stays at six.

3) In the provincial capital, the CHU de Québec hospital network announced Tuesday afternoon that it has no choice but to proceed with délastage, purposely ramping down as many as 300 elective surgeries and 6,000 appointments per week because of an influx of 61 #COVID19 patients.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Oct

1) Two Montreal schools announced over the long weekend that they're closing for two weeks after #COVID19 outbreaks. Quebec also reported an upswing of 20 hospitalizations Monday. In this thread, I'll try to explain why the province is in for a long haul during this second wave.

2) Collège Pasteur and Loyola High School will close for 14 days, marking at least the third private educational institution to shut in Montreal during the #pandemic. It’s worth noting private schools have acted more prudently to close than public ones.
montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

3) In addition to schools, covidecolesquebec.org has begun tracking #COVID19 in daycares, reporting Monday at least 11 affected in the province. The rise in cases corresponds with Montreal demographic data showing a marked percentage increase among children up to the age of 4.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

11 Oct

1) Montreal and much of the rest of Quebec are at a deceptive point in the second wave, as new #COVID19 cases have apparently plateaued in the city. In this thread, I will caution against jumping to conclusions and will call for the public release of more data in the #pandemic.

2) First, the good news: the number of net #COVID19 hospitalizations in the province has declined for the first time in almost two weeks. Quebec did not report any deaths in the past 24 hours. In Montreal, the city posted 227 cases Sunday, the lowest daily number since Sept. 23.

3) At the neighborhood level, the health district of Petite-Patrie—Villeray reported six #COVID19 cases, the lowest since Sept. 24. Other boroughs also declared much fewer infections. Keep in mind, though, that the government chart below frequently undercounts.

Read 9 tweets

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