1) Although Quebec observed its fourth daily decline in new #COVID19 cases on Tuesday, the pandemic is beginning to take a toll on the acute-care hospital system, schools and the workplace. In this thread, I will examine those impacts in the provincial capital and in Montreal.
2) After treating relatively few #COVID19 patients in August and September, the McGill University Health Centre is now grappling with a resurgence, as the chart below makes clear. Total hospitalizations have crept up to 21, along with intensive-care stays at six. Image
3) In the provincial capital, the CHU de Québec hospital network announced Tuesday afternoon that it has no choice but to proceed with délastage, purposely ramping down as many as 300 elective surgeries and 6,000 appointments per week because of an influx of 61 #COVID19 patients.
4) Since hospitalizations are a lagging indicator of positive cases, the province can expect more hospitalizations to come. During the #pandemic's first wave, Quebec City hospitals treated one-third of those currently being hospitalized, and the second wave is far from over.
5) In Montreal, the public health department released a detailed report Tuesday afternoon revealing a total of 65 #COVID19 outbreaks infecting 230 workers. That compares with 51 workplace clusters affecting 159 workers only six days earlier. Please see the chart below. Image
6) Meanwhile, two Montreal educational institutions, Collège Pasteur and Loyola High School, are closed for two weeks following #COVID19 outbreaks. Active cases have been observed in at least 132 schools in Montreal, down from 156 last week, according to covidecolesquebec.org.
7) Sadly, the Education Ministry didn't provide its daily update Tuesday on the number of shuttered classes or active cases among students. Neither did the Health Ministry nor the Montreal public health department release their daily regional and neighborhood #COVID19 breakdowns.
8) Thus, the only figures one can analyse are the provincial ones showing that new #COVID19 cases dropped to 815 Tuesday from 843 the day before, amid a marked decrease in testing. Hospitalizations, however, rose by 11, and the number of deaths by five.
9) For its part, the metropolis reported 268 #COVID19 cases on Tuesday, according to the apparently plateauing orange line in the chart below. The city’s rolling seven-day average was up slightly at 150.14 cases per million population, still a distressingly high rate. Image
10) Premier François Legault suggested Tuesday that the partial confinement measures imposed three weeks ago are beginning to pay off. That may be so, but given the drop-off in #COVID19 tests, the province will have to wait a bit longer to confirm a true trend. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

15 Oct
1) In the past two weeks, the number of Quebec classrooms that have closed due to #COVID19 exposure has soared by 70%. Yet Premier François Legault has ruled out reducing class sizes. In this thread, I will examine the #pandemic’s impact on the educational system thus far.
2) The number of shuttered classes climbed to 1,075 on Oct.13 from 631 on Sept. 30. The number of active #COVID19 cases among school employees jumped to 336 from 187 — an increase of nearly 80%. The number of active cases among students rose to 1,684 from 1,050 (up by 60%). Image
3) Clearly, the #pandemic is straining the resources of the educational system. The government has not released data on the number of schools that have closed, but in Montreal in the past few days two private high schools have shut down for two weeks following #COVID19 outbreaks.
Read 10 tweets
13 Oct
1) Two Montreal schools announced over the long weekend that they're closing for two weeks after #COVID19 outbreaks. Quebec also reported an upswing of 20 hospitalizations Monday. In this thread, I'll try to explain why the province is in for a long haul during this second wave.
2) Collège Pasteur and Loyola High School will close for 14 days, marking at least the third private educational institution to shut in Montreal during the #pandemic. It’s worth noting private schools have acted more prudently to close than public ones.
montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) In addition to schools, covidecolesquebec.org has begun tracking #COVID19 in daycares, reporting Monday at least 11 affected in the province. The rise in cases corresponds with Montreal demographic data showing a marked percentage increase among children up to the age of 4.
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
1) Montreal and much of the rest of Quebec are at a deceptive point in the second wave, as new #COVID19 cases have apparently plateaued in the city. In this thread, I will caution against jumping to conclusions and will call for the public release of more data in the #pandemic.
2) First, the good news: the number of net #COVID19 hospitalizations in the province has declined for the first time in almost two weeks. Quebec did not report any deaths in the past 24 hours. In Montreal, the city posted 227 cases Sunday, the lowest daily number since Sept. 23.
3) At the neighborhood level, the health district of Petite-Patrie—Villeray reported six #COVID19 cases, the lowest since Sept. 24. Other boroughs also declared much fewer infections. Keep in mind, though, that the government chart below frequently undercounts.
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
1) This past Wednesday, Montreal health authorities disclosed a major #COVID19 outbreak at a seniors’ residence in the Quartier Latin that's infected at least 28 people, hospitalized six and killed one. Yet these stats still haven’t been listed in the provincial records. Why not?
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin publicized the outbreak at the Soleil Manoir Plaza to warn that a growing number of so-called mobile elderly are falling ill with #COVID19 in seniors’ residences as opposed to long-term care centres. She explained there was a lag in transmitting the data.
3) But four days later, the Soleil Manoir outbreak — which would appear to be the worst in the province — has still not appeared in the government’s updates, resulting in an undercount of at least 28 cases in the latest daily tally. Undercounts are a problem elsewhere, too.
Read 8 tweets
10 Oct
1) Premier François Legault expressed guarded optimism on Friday that Quebec has “reached some level of stabilization” in #COVID19 cases. But a provincial health institute issued dire projections for Montreal’s intensive-care units. In this thread, I will review those forecasts.
2) This is what the institute had to say: “For the regions of Montreal, Laval, the Laurentians, Lanaudière and the Montérégie, projections suggest hospital capacity will be reached at the end of the next month and even more quickly with regard to intensive-care beds.”
3) Health Minister Christian Dubé tweeted his concerns about hospital capacity but didn't address the faster potential impact on the Montreal region’s ICUs. I’ve spoken with the chiefs of two Montreal ICUs, and they say they’re very worried their ICUs could soon be overwhelmed.
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct
1) Montreal health authorities released for the first time Thursday a breakdown of #COVID outbreaks in the workplace, revealing that most have occurred in restaurants, bars, gyms and hotels. In this thread, I'll try to explain what this means for the city's #pandemic's response.
2) Public health officials are scrambling to contain more than 130 #COVID19 outbreaks in the metropolis: at least 51 in the workplace, 42 in schools, 18 in daycare centres and more than a dozen in health-care institutions that include public and private eldercare homes.
3) The breakdown by authorities lists 25 outbreaks affecting restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies as of Oct. 7. It’s clear that some workers in restaurants and bars, which closed to customers on Oct. 1, are still reeling from #COVID19.
Read 10 tweets

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