1) In the past two weeks, the number of Quebec classrooms that have closed due to #COVID19 exposure has soared by 70%. Yet Premier François Legault has ruled out reducing class sizes. In this thread, I will examine the #pandemic’s impact on the educational system thus far.
2) The number of shuttered classes climbed to 1,075 on Oct.13 from 631 on Sept. 30. The number of active #COVID19 cases among school employees jumped to 336 from 187 — an increase of nearly 80%. The number of active cases among students rose to 1,684 from 1,050 (up by 60%).
3) Clearly, the #pandemic is straining the resources of the educational system. The government has not released data on the number of schools that have closed, but in Montreal in the past few days two private high schools have shut down for two weeks following #COVID19 outbreaks.
4) Authorities don’t fully know the extent of the contagion in schools because they are not systematically testing students as Germany has done. Obviously, there are no easy solutions to the crisis in the educational system, but the status quo apparently isn’t working, either.
5) Meanwhile, Montreal posted its lowest daily increase of #COVID19 cases (189) in more than three weeks. This would suggest that the second wave may have peaked in the metropolis, but it would be premature to draw this conclusion because testing has dropped off in the past week.
6) The #COVID19 record is a mixed one across the city. For example, the number of hospitalizations at the McGill University Health Centre appears to have declined this week, but emergency room admissions are once again picking up. (Please see the chart below.)
7) An increase in #COVID19 ER admissions could not come at a worse time. The chart below shows that more than a dozen ERs in Montreal were on red alert Wednesday night because of overcrowding in a city that's in a #pandemic red zone. Hospitals in general are on high alert.
8) At the neighborhood level, the #COVID19 spike seems to have leveled off in Outremont, according to the latest community-transmission chart released by the Montreal public health department Wednesday. But infections are surging once again in the west end as well as downtown.
9) Montreal has also been witnessing an uptick in #COVID19 fatalities in the past week, with three added Wednesday to a death toll which now stands at 3,498, greater than those of Denmark (675) and Finland (204) combined, but not Sweden’s (5,907). See the chart below.
10) These trends suggest the city and province must remain vigilant, with #pandemic measures in place, for months to come until a #COVID19 vaccine becomes widely available. Sadly, students and teachers will likely have to cope with restrictions for months to come. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

17 Oct
1) Nearly three weeks after Quebec imposed a partial lockdown in the #pandemic, #COVID19 outbreaks are nonetheless multiplying across the province in a wider range of settings. In this thread, I will elaborate on the growing clusters of cases in the second wave.
2) Twenty employees at the Davie shipyard in Lévis have contracted #COVID19. In Trois Rivières, a guard and an inmate have tested positive for the #coronavirus at a detention centre. In Laval, a tennis club has closed temporarily after two outbreaks infecting at least 30 people.
3) On Friday, McDonald’s announced it’s shut three Montreal-area restaurants after employees tested positive, raising the total number to five this week. A seniors’ residence in Saint-Charles Borromée reported 32 #COVID19 infections in the past 24 hours. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
Read 10 tweets
16 Oct
1) Quebec crossed a sombre milestone Thursday, declaring more than 6,000 deaths in the #pandemic, 15 more than all of Sweden, a nation with a population that is 1.7 million greater than the province’s. In this thread, I will highlight some other grim milestones.
2) Also Thursday, the province crossed the thousand-mark in the number of schools reporting either a student or teacher testing positive for the #coronavirus, according to covidecolesquebec.org. In some schools, there are so many cases officials can’t keep track of all of them.
3) Again on Thursday, Montreal crossed the 4,000-case milestone of new #coronavirus infections in just the past two weeks. That tally in the second wave represents nearly 11% of all of the city’s cases since the World Health Organization declared #COVID19 a #pandemic on March 11.
Read 9 tweets
14 Oct
1) Although Quebec observed its fourth daily decline in new #COVID19 cases on Tuesday, the pandemic is beginning to take a toll on the acute-care hospital system, schools and the workplace. In this thread, I will examine those impacts in the provincial capital and in Montreal.
2) After treating relatively few #COVID19 patients in August and September, the McGill University Health Centre is now grappling with a resurgence, as the chart below makes clear. Total hospitalizations have crept up to 21, along with intensive-care stays at six. Image
3) In the provincial capital, the CHU de Québec hospital network announced Tuesday afternoon that it has no choice but to proceed with délastage, purposely ramping down as many as 300 elective surgeries and 6,000 appointments per week because of an influx of 61 #COVID19 patients.
Read 10 tweets
13 Oct
1) Two Montreal schools announced over the long weekend that they're closing for two weeks after #COVID19 outbreaks. Quebec also reported an upswing of 20 hospitalizations Monday. In this thread, I'll try to explain why the province is in for a long haul during this second wave.
2) Collège Pasteur and Loyola High School will close for 14 days, marking at least the third private educational institution to shut in Montreal during the #pandemic. It’s worth noting private schools have acted more prudently to close than public ones.
montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) In addition to schools, covidecolesquebec.org has begun tracking #COVID19 in daycares, reporting Monday at least 11 affected in the province. The rise in cases corresponds with Montreal demographic data showing a marked percentage increase among children up to the age of 4.
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
1) Montreal and much of the rest of Quebec are at a deceptive point in the second wave, as new #COVID19 cases have apparently plateaued in the city. In this thread, I will caution against jumping to conclusions and will call for the public release of more data in the #pandemic.
2) First, the good news: the number of net #COVID19 hospitalizations in the province has declined for the first time in almost two weeks. Quebec did not report any deaths in the past 24 hours. In Montreal, the city posted 227 cases Sunday, the lowest daily number since Sept. 23.
3) At the neighborhood level, the health district of Petite-Patrie—Villeray reported six #COVID19 cases, the lowest since Sept. 24. Other boroughs also declared much fewer infections. Keep in mind, though, that the government chart below frequently undercounts.
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
1) This past Wednesday, Montreal health authorities disclosed a major #COVID19 outbreak at a seniors’ residence in the Quartier Latin that's infected at least 28 people, hospitalized six and killed one. Yet these stats still haven’t been listed in the provincial records. Why not?
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin publicized the outbreak at the Soleil Manoir Plaza to warn that a growing number of so-called mobile elderly are falling ill with #COVID19 in seniors’ residences as opposed to long-term care centres. She explained there was a lag in transmitting the data.
3) But four days later, the Soleil Manoir outbreak — which would appear to be the worst in the province — has still not appeared in the government’s updates, resulting in an undercount of at least 28 cases in the latest daily tally. Undercounts are a problem elsewhere, too.
Read 8 tweets

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