🚨UK longitudinal study of 201 individuals with #LongCovid reveals a high proportion are relatively young & without pre-existing health conditions. Also reveals "almost 70%…have impairment in one or more organs four months after initial symptoms". 1/4
▶️"prevalence of pre-existing conditions (obesity: 20%, hypertension: 6%; diabetes: 2%; heart disease: 4%) was low"
▶️Only 18% had been hospitalised
▶️Mean age: 44
▶️"impairment in heart (32%), lungs (33%), kidneys (12%), liver (10%), pancreas (17%), and spleen (6%)"
"In this young cohort with low prevalence of comorbidities, the extent of symptom burden and organ impairment is concerning", given the "pandemic's scale and high infection rates" among this population deemed "low risk". 3/4
Authors note blinkered UK public policy focus on fatality rates.👇 Assumption of low risk among relatively young & healthy on account of their low fatality rates is undermined by this emerging evidence of vulnerability to #LongCovid multi-organ impairment. 4/4
PS: Given the high number of students who are becoming infected, some will suffer from #LongCovid. But it's relatively rare for those in late teens & early 20s. Instructors are in more vulnerable age groups.👇
PPS: This recent publication by the National Institute for Health Research provides a systematic review of the literature on #LongCovid👇.

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More from @MikeOtsuka

16 Oct
🚨"you're in that very, very fast upward swing of the epidemic, and a day's delay matters, a week's delay really matters... We saw that in March/April... The red lights are flashing...". SAGE member @JeremyFarrar case for circuit breaker starting NOW. 1/2
bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod… Image
Informative piece on the 21 Sept SAGE meeting, Johnson's decision not to follow their advice & the subsequent alarm of scientists. @JeremyFarrar 'described the measures [the government adopted] as "the worst of all worlds".'👇 2/2
UK government advisor & Oxford Regius Professor of Medicine John Bell supports a circuit breaker:
theguardian.com/world/live/202… Image
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
According to the recently released SAGE papers👇, keeping universities open plays a greater role in spreading Covid-19 infection -- ~0.3 (0.2-0.5) increase in R -- than any other activity, apart from keeping secondary schools open -- ~0.35 (0.2-0.5). 1/
By contrast:
▶️General directive to work from home where possible decreases R by 0.2-0.4
▶️Closure of bars, pubs, cafés and restaurants decreases R by 0.1-0.2
▶️"Stopping all contacts between different households in the home might reduce Rt by ~0.1-0.2" 2/
▶️Closure of indoor gyms, leisure centres, fitness etc.: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1"
▶️Closure of places of worship / community centres: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1" 3/
Read 8 tweets
13 Oct
This tweet from yesterday👇on the Manchester VC's interview with @bbcnickrobinson is now my 5th most viewed for 2020, at 92k and rising. Countdown of the other 4 below. 1/5
#3 from before the pandemic with 160k views: 3/5
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
Jaw-dropping @BBCRadio4 interview w VC of University of Manchester: surprised by rapidity of outbreaks!; claims the main problem was failure to sufficiently communicate to students the need to follow guidelines!
.@OfficialUoM VC: "I think we were surprised by the speed and scale of the numbers that tested positive. ...It was very much a feature of something that seemed to happen very fast about a week after they returned – a week to 10 days -- and now they're coming down." 1/
👆WTF? How could you have been surprised, given that *exactly the same thing* happened in university after university in the US in August & early September. 2/
Read 32 tweets
15 Sep
A thread on the impending, foreseeable @UniversitiesUK car crash: Cases have been surging since the re-opening of schools & the call to return to work in early September. 1/10
With the re-opening of schools, demand for tests now outstrips supply, and it will be a struggle for schools to remain open as a result. 2/10
An especially grim upshot is that there is now insufficient testing even for NHS workers. 3/10
Read 21 tweets
31 Jul
🚨If university students aren't tested every 2-3 days, "colleges are very likely to fall prey to outbreaks that will place vulnerable people on campus & in the surrounding community at risk for serious illness and death." 1/
This according to @ADPaltiel, a Professor of health policy at @YaleSPH, in comments on epidemological modelling, for which he was lead investigator, published today in JAMA👇. 2/
See further comments👇by @ADPaltiel in above-linked press account. ("school" = "university") 3/ Image
Read 36 tweets

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