.@WelshGovernment appears to believe older children higher transmission risk for #COVID19

@educationgovuk guidance last updated 1/10 doesn't mitigate this or aerosol transmission- clear its schools' job to assess

🤔

Squeaky bum time for school leaders

gov.uk/government/pub… ImageImageImage
Because Government #dontmentiontheschools you mightn't have noticed 👆

As any of the people below will remind you, @NAHTnews @ASCL_UK @SchoolGovNet @SchoolGov are responsible for school H&S:

@HoppySaul
@adamhamdy
@EdnaKrabapple1
@paysupplystaff
@Kateliveco1G

😷
Expand below to compare over 3 weeks

Year 7-11 children consistently 2nd highest group & still on exponential increase, while unis seem to be getting on top of their outbreaks

Now 1% of secondary children infected with #COVID19

@adamhamdy @ToryFibs: herd immunity by backdoor? Image
Also, can anyone explain primary data?

Someone good with stats...

Week 1 they were heading towards 0% of population but in week 2 and three this signal disappears - gone, not reverses.

-artefact from 7 day average?
-were they disproportionally in the 16k correction?

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More from @ConcernedofBri1

21 Oct
@adamhamdy It looks very much like schools are being used to drive this by the back door.

A bit more thinking to do about 👇

It shows %age rise in 7 day average across UK but you can clearly see spikes a week after schools went back in different regions, then unis

(1/n) ImageImage
@adamhamdy 2/n

From last night's press conference @BorisJohnson seems to think we just need to try a bit harder to follow rules

However, since mid-July there have been around 15% extra cases each week

This seems to have jumped to more like 25% as schools returned

@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson 3/n

The large spike at the end encompasses two things:

-case backlog being added
-uni return

BUT we seem to have rebounded to around 25% extra cases each week again (early days)

Importantly, it's unclear how much of the sharp fall is unis dealing with 'their virus'
Read 8 tweets
20 Oct
Two things we learned from @BorisJohnson

1. He doesn't understand how infection numbers reduce

"unis did a great job of getting their virus under control"

If true, they did it by locking students in their halls...

🤦‍♀️🤥

#COVID19

2. He doesn't really get exponential growth.

Apparently the R is only a bit above 1 so it's all okay.

It's around 1.3 to 1.5, higher than the lead into this debacle from mid August on. So numbers not going south yet.

🤦‍♀️🤬

Both bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5…
17.54pm

(2/3)
(3/3)

There is a great primer on exponential growth here:



Please watch it.

More importantly, please get friends, journalists and politicians to watch too.

#JonathanVanTam #JVT said deaths baked in for 3 weeks.

You can expect 160-320 on 11/11 😰
Read 4 tweets

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