@adamhamdy It looks very much like schools are being used to drive this by the back door.
A bit more thinking to do about 👇
It shows %age rise in 7 day average across UK but you can clearly see spikes a week after schools went back in different regions, then unis
(1/n)
A bit more thinking to do about 👇
It shows %age rise in 7 day average across UK but you can clearly see spikes a week after schools went back in different regions, then unis
(1/n)
@adamhamdy 2/n
From last night's press conference @BorisJohnson seems to think we just need to try a bit harder to follow rules
However, since mid-July there have been around 15% extra cases each week
This seems to have jumped to more like 25% as schools returned
From last night's press conference @BorisJohnson seems to think we just need to try a bit harder to follow rules
However, since mid-July there have been around 15% extra cases each week
This seems to have jumped to more like 25% as schools returned
@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson 3/n
The large spike at the end encompasses two things:
-case backlog being added
-uni return
BUT we seem to have rebounded to around 25% extra cases each week again (early days)
Importantly, it's unclear how much of the sharp fall is unis dealing with 'their virus'
The large spike at the end encompasses two things:
-case backlog being added
-uni return
BUT we seem to have rebounded to around 25% extra cases each week again (early days)
Importantly, it's unclear how much of the sharp fall is unis dealing with 'their virus'
@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson 4/n
It's possible this is more to do with Excel gate - in all other peaks, higher = wider
This is very high and narrow - a blip?
A background of 25% increase each 7 days with around 300 deaths/day baked in is not good
#jvt
It's possible this is more to do with Excel gate - in all other peaks, higher = wider
This is very high and narrow - a blip?
A background of 25% increase each 7 days with around 300 deaths/day baked in is not good
#jvt
@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson 5/n
A few weeks ago @CMO_England predicted up to 50k cases/day - this week's ONS will be interesting reading
Hospitalisations and death rates seem to support their assertion only half of cases picked up by testing
On that bases we are at 40k /day which is 80% predicted value
A few weeks ago @CMO_England predicted up to 50k cases/day - this week's ONS will be interesting reading
Hospitalisations and death rates seem to support their assertion only half of cases picked up by testing
On that bases we are at 40k /day which is 80% predicted value
@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson @CMO_England 6/n
If we do hit 300 deaths/day by 11/11 then we are running at 30% of April max.
BUT if we still have 25% increase week on week in the run in to that point, expect to reach around 60% of max
(25% compound increase is 95% increase)
If we do hit 300 deaths/day by 11/11 then we are running at 30% of April max.
BUT if we still have 25% increase week on week in the run in to that point, expect to reach around 60% of max
(25% compound increase is 95% increase)
@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson @CMO_England 7/n
If you really want to know why we should be worried, take a look @BorisJohnson's hair.
Gone is the unkempt rogue and in the seriously combed statesman.
Please read whole thread point out flaws or suggest anything missed...
@HoppySaul
@Parents_Utd
@EdnaKrabapple1
@S42sr
If you really want to know why we should be worried, take a look @BorisJohnson's hair.
Gone is the unkempt rogue and in the seriously combed statesman.
Please read whole thread point out flaws or suggest anything missed...
@HoppySaul
@Parents_Utd
@EdnaKrabapple1
@S42sr
@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson @CMO_England @HoppySaul @Parents_Utd @EdnaKrabapple1 @S42sr @MattHancock @GavinWilliamson @HildaPalmer @karamballes @scotthortop @exergy888 @threadreaderapp unroll
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