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Concerned of Bristol

20 Oct, 4 tweets, 5 min read

@BorisJohnson

Two things we learned from @BorisJohnson

1. He doesn't understand how infection numbers reduce

"unis did a great job of getting their virus under control"

If true, they did it by locking students in their halls...

🤦‍♀️🤥

#COVID19

2. He doesn't really get exponential growth.

Apparently the R is only a bit above 1 so it's all okay.

It's around 1.3 to 1.5, higher than the lead into this debacle from mid August on. So numbers not going south yet.

🤦‍♀️🤬

Both bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5…
17.54pm

(2/3)

(3/3)

There is a great primer on exponential growth here:

Please watch it.

More importantly, please get friends, journalists and politicians to watch too.

#JonathanVanTam #JVT said deaths baked in for 3 weeks.

You can expect 160-320 on 11/11 😰

@BorisJohnson

Ran out of space for some copy-ins for👆

Situation and @BorisJohnson's grasp of it not looking great.

Number of deaths in 3 weeks looking horrible.

@Parents_Utd
@SolihullNasuwt
@EdnaKrabapple1
@HoppySaul
@S42sr
@ChrisDo30828241
@adamhamdy
@ToryFibs
@2Tone4Real
@PhilMyers53

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More from @ConcernedofBri1

Concerned of Bristol

@ConcernedofBri1

21 Oct

@adamhamdy

@adamhamdy It looks very much like schools are being used to drive this by the back door.

A bit more thinking to do about 👇

It shows %age rise in 7 day average across UK but you can clearly see spikes a week after schools went back in different regions, then unis

(1/n)

@adamhamdy

@adamhamdy 2/n

From last night's press conference @BorisJohnson seems to think we just need to try a bit harder to follow rules

However, since mid-July there have been around 15% extra cases each week

This seems to have jumped to more like 25% as schools returned

@adamhamdy

@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson 3/n

The large spike at the end encompasses two things:

-case backlog being added
-uni return

BUT we seem to have rebounded to around 25% extra cases each week again (early days)

Importantly, it's unclear how much of the sharp fall is unis dealing with 'their virus'

Read 8 tweets

Concerned of Bristol

@ConcernedofBri1

19 Oct

@WelshGovernment

.@WelshGovernment appears to believe older children higher transmission risk for #COVID19

@educationgovuk guidance last updated 1/10 doesn't mitigate this or aerosol transmission- clear its schools' job to assess

🤔

Squeaky bum time for school leaders

gov.uk/government/pub…

@NAHTnews

Because Government #dontmentiontheschools you mightn't have noticed 👆

As any of the people below will remind you, @NAHTnews @ASCL_UK @SchoolGovNet @SchoolGov are responsible for school H&S:

@HoppySaul
@adamhamdy
@EdnaKrabapple1
@paysupplystaff
@Kateliveco1G

😷

@adamhamdy

Expand below to compare over 3 weeks

Year 7-11 children consistently 2nd highest group & still on exponential increase, while unis seem to be getting on top of their outbreaks

Now 1% of secondary children infected with #COVID19

@adamhamdy @ToryFibs: herd immunity by backdoor?

Read 4 tweets

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