1) Nearly three weeks into Quebec’s partial lockdown, the number of workplace #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal grew to 68 on Tuesday from 65 a week earlier. In this thread, I will delve into how the #coronavirus is spreading into an expanding number of businesses.
2) First, it appears the decision to shut bars and restaurants has paid off in the metropolis, with the latest chart by the Montreal public health department showing a drop of five #COVID19 outbreaks in such businesses, along with hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies.
3) On the other hand, the #coronavirus has caused three #COVID19 clusters in the chemical industry, including possibly in pharmaceutical plants. Other businesses that have declared outbreaks since last week involve rubber and plastics products, construction, textiles and retail.
4) This trend suggests that despite the partial lockdown, the #pandemic is broadening its impact in Montreal. It’s not just circulating in the community, in schools and in eldercare homes, but in a wider range of industries beyond retail and hospitality.
5) Meanwhile, Montreal declared its biggest increase in its #COVID19 death toll in more than two months on Tuesday, with nine fatalities added. It’s likely most of those deaths occurred in the days before. The city’s death toll now stands at 3,516. Please the chart below.
6) A day after I tweeted about missing #COVID19 numbers in the province’s seniors’ residences, the Quebec government made public one of its most confusing updates during the #pandemic’s second wave. The Montreal chart below, full of pluses and minuses, simply cannot be trusted.
7) Montreal appears to have recorded 273 #COVID19 infections on Tuesday, but that figure is likely unreliable and will probably be revised. It also comes amid a dramatic drop in the number of tests. Still, the chart below shows an overall trend of a plateau in cases in the city.
8) Premier François Legault acknowledged Tuesday that Quebec’s health-care system is “running on empty,” but he refused to raise nurses’ wages beyond the rate of inflation. Some of those nurses are working in city ERs that are as overcrowded as ever. In a #pandemic. See below.
9) If there was any good news to report Tuesday, it’s that the number of active cases in the province’s schools dipped by 17. More significant is the fact that 47 fewer classes were shuttered due to #COVID19. See the chart below. Still, it’s too early to conclude this is a trend.
10) Health Minister Christian Dubé declined to say whether the government will lift its pandemic lockdown a week from tomorrow, after his so-called 28-day challenge. Given the expanding contagion in the city, I would be surprised if he did. End of thread. Stay safe everyone.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

22 Oct
1) The number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal has risen to more than 200 from 130 two weeks ago, the city’s public health director disclosed Wednesday. Hospitalizations are up by almost 9%. Nonetheless, Dr. Mylène Drouin said the city is progressing in the right direction.
2) On Oct. 7, Drouin noted that 40 schools had outbreaks. On Wednesday, that number had grown to 73. Two weeks ago, there were #COVID19 clusters in 50 workplace settings. On Wednesday, that number climbed to 70 and up by two from the day before.
3) A total of 129 people was hospitalized for #COVID in Montreal on Oct. 7, of whom 25 were in intensive care. By Wednesday, those numbers inched up to 140 and 36, respectively. Such figures are far from overwhelming the health system, but are they moving in the right direction?
Read 10 tweets
20 Oct
1) Nearly two weeks after Montreal public health officials disclosed a major #COVID19 outbreak at a seniors’ residence on Sherbrooke St. E., this cluster of cases still hasn’t appeared in the government’s daily updates. In this thread, I will note this is not the only omission.
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin, of the health department, had confirmed that the outbreak at Les Résidences Soleil Manoir Plaza infected 28, hospitalized six and killed one. However, only three cases are currently listed at the seniors’ facility and no deaths, according to Monday’s update.
3) Lest anyone dismiss this as an isolated incident, credit goes to Radio-Canada’s @ThomasGerbet for exposing information gaffes involving at least six other seniors’ residences and long-term care centres. Two outbreaks were absent from the updates. ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/17422…
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
1) During the #pandemic's second wave, Quebec is calculating #COVID19 deaths differently, focusing on fatalities in the past 24 hours of each day. Following the numbers this way could result in undercounting the actual tally. In this thread, I will explain why this is a problem.
2) If one were to add up the daily #COVID19 deaths declared by Quebec since Oct. 1, the sum would reach 60 as of Sunday. But the province is adding deaths retroactively every day in a series of complicated updates. In fact, the total number of deaths since Oct. 1 is at least 169.
3) Perhaps that’s why it came as a shock to many that Quebec crossed the 6,000-death threshold last week, as the daily updates first report relatively low numbers in the previous 24 hours and then add deaths retroactively only days later. It’s very hard to track deaths this way.
Read 10 tweets
18 Oct
1) With #COVID19 cases rising for the past four days, it may be premature to draw the conclusion that the second wave is plateauing in Quebec, as Premier François Legault suggests. In this thread, I will call for a more rapid response to contact tracing. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The latest #COVID19 surge suggests there are limits to the government’s partial lockdown. In its #pandemic projections released Friday, Quebec’s public health institute warned that current measures are not enough to prevent a spike in hospitalizations. So what is the solution?
3) Certainly, the solution isn’t to proceed with the yo-yo rhythm of easing #pandemic restrictions, only to reimpose a partial lockdown for months to come until a #COVID19 vaccine becomes widely available. I'm told Health Minister Christian Dubé is wary of the yo-yo effect, too.
Read 10 tweets
17 Oct
1) Nearly three weeks after Quebec imposed a partial lockdown in the #pandemic, #COVID19 outbreaks are nonetheless multiplying across the province in a wider range of settings. In this thread, I will elaborate on the growing clusters of cases in the second wave.
2) Twenty employees at the Davie shipyard in Lévis have contracted #COVID19. In Trois Rivières, a guard and an inmate have tested positive for the #coronavirus at a detention centre. In Laval, a tennis club has closed temporarily after two outbreaks infecting at least 30 people.
3) On Friday, McDonald’s announced it’s shut three Montreal-area restaurants after employees tested positive, raising the total number to five this week. A seniors’ residence in Saint-Charles Borromée reported 32 #COVID19 infections in the past 24 hours. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
Read 10 tweets
16 Oct
1) Quebec crossed a sombre milestone Thursday, declaring more than 6,000 deaths in the #pandemic, 15 more than all of Sweden, a nation with a population that is 1.7 million greater than the province’s. In this thread, I will highlight some other grim milestones.
2) Also Thursday, the province crossed the thousand-mark in the number of schools reporting either a student or teacher testing positive for the #coronavirus, according to covidecolesquebec.org. In some schools, there are so many cases officials can’t keep track of all of them.
3) Again on Thursday, Montreal crossed the 4,000-case milestone of new #coronavirus infections in just the past two weeks. That tally in the second wave represents nearly 11% of all of the city’s cases since the World Health Organization declared #COVID19 a #pandemic on March 11.
Read 9 tweets

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