1) The number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal has risen to more than 200 from 130 two weeks ago, the city’s public health director disclosed Wednesday. Hospitalizations are up by almost 9%. Nonetheless, Dr. Mylène Drouin said the city is progressing in the right direction.
2) On Oct. 7, Drouin noted that 40 schools had outbreaks. On Wednesday, that number had grown to 73. Two weeks ago, there were #COVID19 clusters in 50 workplace settings. On Wednesday, that number climbed to 70 and up by two from the day before.
3) A total of 129 people was hospitalized for #COVID in Montreal on Oct. 7, of whom 25 were in intensive care. By Wednesday, those numbers inched up to 140 and 36, respectively. Such figures are far from overwhelming the health system, but are they moving in the right direction?
4) Drouin conceded the city's #COVID19 testing positivity rate remains “elevated” at more than 5% and is still rising, despite a “significant” drop in screening recently. In Parc Extension, the positivity rate is more than 15%. Don’t these figures imply the opposite of progress?
5) Drouin cited two things to back her assertion of progress. She suggested the number of new #COVID19 cases has plateaued after a sharp rise in September. She also noted the #coronavirus’s reproduction number is below 1. But how can she be certain of all this with fewer tests?
6) Despite Drouin’s talk of progress, it was quite telling that she said the city will stay in the red zone and emphasized that the #COVID19 numbers will have to drop for a sustained period of time before considering lowering Montreal’s #pandemic alert status.
7) Across the province, the number of #COVID19 cases was back up to 1,072 Wednesday, with 19 fatalities being added to a death toll of 6,074. As for the numbers in long-term care centres and seniors’ residences, they were simply marked “not available.” See below.
8) Officially, the CHSLD St-Augustin in Beauport is reporting an outbreak of 47 #COVID19 cases among residents. On Monday, it posted 35 cases among residents (up by four) and 44 among employees (up by 10). Those numbers increased to 47 and 51, respectively, on Wednesday.
9) The discrepancies in the data cited above could raise suspicions authorities are trying to spin the numbers. The facts are that hospitals in the Quebec City region are ramping down clinical activities to deal with the #pandemic, and Montreal has reopened Hôtel-Dieu hospital.
10) Meanwhile, Health Minister Christian Dubé announced Wednesday that all municipal regional countries north of Trois-Rivières in the Mauricie-et-Centre-du-Québec will be declared red zones Saturday. See below for what the province will look like on the weekend. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

23 Oct
1) Montreal crossed the threshold of 40,000 #COVID19 cases Thursday, a number that's higher than the tallies of Greece (28,216) and Hong Kong (5,281) combined. In this thread, I'll try to show how the #pandemic is wreaking havoc not only in the city but more so across Quebec.
2) Premier François Legault was more somber than he's been in days reporting the addition of 20 #COVID19 fatalities to Quebec’s toll of 6,094. The chart below shows 10 deaths in the past 24 hours at the CHSLD St-Augustin in Beauport, an eldercare home I wrote about yesterday. Image
3) It appears that the talk of how Quebec’s long-term care centres (CHSLDs) may have been spared during the #pandemic's second wave is premature, given that Health Minister Christian Dubé has dispatched so-called SWAT teams to four CHSLDs to contain their #COVID19 outbreaks.
Read 10 tweets
21 Oct
1) Nearly three weeks into Quebec’s partial lockdown, the number of workplace #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal grew to 68 on Tuesday from 65 a week earlier. In this thread, I will delve into how the #coronavirus is spreading into an expanding number of businesses.
2) First, it appears the decision to shut bars and restaurants has paid off in the metropolis, with the latest chart by the Montreal public health department showing a drop of five #COVID19 outbreaks in such businesses, along with hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies.
3) On the other hand, the #coronavirus has caused three #COVID19 clusters in the chemical industry, including possibly in pharmaceutical plants. Other businesses that have declared outbreaks since last week involve rubber and plastics products, construction, textiles and retail.
Read 10 tweets
20 Oct
1) Nearly two weeks after Montreal public health officials disclosed a major #COVID19 outbreak at a seniors’ residence on Sherbrooke St. E., this cluster of cases still hasn’t appeared in the government’s daily updates. In this thread, I will note this is not the only omission.
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin, of the health department, had confirmed that the outbreak at Les Résidences Soleil Manoir Plaza infected 28, hospitalized six and killed one. However, only three cases are currently listed at the seniors’ facility and no deaths, according to Monday’s update.
3) Lest anyone dismiss this as an isolated incident, credit goes to Radio-Canada’s @ThomasGerbet for exposing information gaffes involving at least six other seniors’ residences and long-term care centres. Two outbreaks were absent from the updates. ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/17422…
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
1) During the #pandemic's second wave, Quebec is calculating #COVID19 deaths differently, focusing on fatalities in the past 24 hours of each day. Following the numbers this way could result in undercounting the actual tally. In this thread, I will explain why this is a problem.
2) If one were to add up the daily #COVID19 deaths declared by Quebec since Oct. 1, the sum would reach 60 as of Sunday. But the province is adding deaths retroactively every day in a series of complicated updates. In fact, the total number of deaths since Oct. 1 is at least 169.
3) Perhaps that’s why it came as a shock to many that Quebec crossed the 6,000-death threshold last week, as the daily updates first report relatively low numbers in the previous 24 hours and then add deaths retroactively only days later. It’s very hard to track deaths this way.
Read 10 tweets
18 Oct
1) With #COVID19 cases rising for the past four days, it may be premature to draw the conclusion that the second wave is plateauing in Quebec, as Premier François Legault suggests. In this thread, I will call for a more rapid response to contact tracing. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The latest #COVID19 surge suggests there are limits to the government’s partial lockdown. In its #pandemic projections released Friday, Quebec’s public health institute warned that current measures are not enough to prevent a spike in hospitalizations. So what is the solution?
3) Certainly, the solution isn’t to proceed with the yo-yo rhythm of easing #pandemic restrictions, only to reimpose a partial lockdown for months to come until a #COVID19 vaccine becomes widely available. I'm told Health Minister Christian Dubé is wary of the yo-yo effect, too.
Read 10 tweets
17 Oct
1) Nearly three weeks after Quebec imposed a partial lockdown in the #pandemic, #COVID19 outbreaks are nonetheless multiplying across the province in a wider range of settings. In this thread, I will elaborate on the growing clusters of cases in the second wave.
2) Twenty employees at the Davie shipyard in Lévis have contracted #COVID19. In Trois Rivières, a guard and an inmate have tested positive for the #coronavirus at a detention centre. In Laval, a tennis club has closed temporarily after two outbreaks infecting at least 30 people.
3) On Friday, McDonald’s announced it’s shut three Montreal-area restaurants after employees tested positive, raising the total number to five this week. A seniors’ residence in Saint-Charles Borromée reported 32 #COVID19 infections in the past 24 hours. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
Read 10 tweets

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