Raoul Pal Profile picture
22 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Because life is not just about bitcoin, here are some bond charts to make you think.

I have used the 2001/2 chart versus current since Spring of last year and they helped me nail all of the moves in bonds.

Past performance is no guarantee but I still like these, a lot.
Here are 10 yr yields versus 2001/2, its time for yields to fall.
And due to the fact that the correction this time looks less on chart due to scale, here is the zoomed in version.
The same chart appears using Eurodollar futures (ED6)... Its the perfect point for the turn.
And here is the zoomed in version...
Feels like the next leg lower in rates could be coming, regardless of the current narrative.

This is just a small part of my work on this idea. I wrote it up in Macro Insiders /Real Vision Pro yesterday with some trade ideas around it.

Let's see...

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More from @RaoulGMI

18 Oct
Important Thread:

If you don't think Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, you are missing the big and important picture. This is going to be the biggest overhaul of the global financial system since Bretton Woods.
Talking of Bretton Woods, this IMF article alludes to a huge change coming but lacks real clarity outside of allowing much more fiscal stimulus via monetary mechanisms.

imf.org/en/News/Articl…
And tomorrow, the IMF holds a conference on digital currencies and cross-border payment systems..

meetings.imf.org/en/2020/Annual…
Read 26 tweets
15 Oct
The V-shaped recovery in Europe? Well, the EU yield curve is about to go negative...
And everyone is very, very long the Euro....Ruh Roh, alligator jaws alert!
And thats bad news bears for the European banks...
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep
I do sometimes marvel with pride at what've been built with @RealVision and where its all going. Big plans a foot, as ever.

I mean on what other media in the world do you get this:
A shirtless @hendry_hugh in an alley beside his house, in St Barth, eating lunch (messily) while interviewing a less well-known but absolutely legendary bond trader.

And at the same time creating on screen magic
A smart, engaging, funny, intellectual, authentic conversation where everyone goes down the deep learning journey with Hugh.

This is a million miles from what anyone else is doing in financial media.
Read 17 tweets
21 Sep
Well, it's that time again to talk about the Spanish banks (I could talk about all banks in Europe but I'll choose Spain since I know it better and they are the worst).

The Spanish summer of tourist revenues was cut short and was very bad over all. The window of opportunity to
rebuild cash flows for business and households has passed. COVID complications will cause more economic pain and The Insolvency will become prevalent over the autumn and winter.

Last week the EU gave $73bn in help for the EU banks but that failed - they are down 14% since then.
But in Spain... yikes. Banco Sabadell is about to break key support
Read 9 tweets
19 Sep
Im so lucky to do what I do. I've had some HUGE interviews so far in 2020 where I've been left blown away...

Some of those:

@KiteVC
@AlderLaneeggs
@michael_saylor
@DTAPCAP
@hendry_hugh
@ParrillaDiego
@KeithMcCullough
@TeddyVallee
@LynAldenContact
@SimonDixonTwitt
List is ridiculous... but there are more legends I personally have interviews:

Dan Morehead
Ben Melkman
Jason Buck
Kiril Sokolof
Chrisophe Oliari
Gerard Minack
JeffGreene
Howard Marks,
Dylan Grice
Dee Smith
Tom Jessop

Im sure Ive missed off some faves.
Read 5 tweets
15 Sep
The Summer Dull ( The Vol Crush Edition)

I hope at some point this boring range of vol death across most asset classes will break...

Gold miners - rangebound but might be breaking out...
Gold - Yawn... but maybe it will breakout soon or maybe it sets a wider range again...
Banks... yawn...
Read 10 tweets

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