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22 Oct, 12 tweets, 3 min read
Public Health England have today (22 October) released their latest (Influenza and) COVID-19 surveillance report.

It is for week 43 and includes data up to week 42.
Cases tested remained roughly constatnt. This may be due to limited availability of tests.

Positivity has increased to over 8% in pillar 2 indicating not enough testing is being done.
Here is the map of COVID-19 cases detected this week. Most of the country is now above 50 cases per 100,000
Number of outbreaks and location of outbreaks remains roughly constant
COVID-19 hospitalisations increasing rapidly
Distribution of cases into ages: university/college; secondary school age; primary school age; nursery age. Majority in university/college-aged students (these are university/college *aged* students whether or not they attend education).
Primary school aged cases
Secondary school aged cases. Increasing.
University college-aged age groups. Increasing slightly.
Hospital (left) and ICU (right) admissions
Deaths within 28- and 60-days.
Here is my analysis of cases, positivity, and hospitalizations in each age group

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Oct
Matt Hancock told the Commons today, placing Stoke, Coventry & Slough into Tier 2

"In all those areas, there are more than 100 positive cases per 100,000 people, cases are doubling approximately every fortnight and we are seeing a concerning increase in cases among the over-60s" Image
So, it appears that we now appear to have criteria for placing local authorities into Tier 2:
- more than 100 cases per 100,000 people
- cases doubling approximately every fortnight
- concerning increase in cases among the over-60s
100 cases per 100,000 seems arbitrary, especially considering it doubles the previous rate for interventions:
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Oct
Here is the latest heatmap of COVID-19 cases in England. There are now *114* cases per 100,000 in the over-80s, a 28% rise since last week.

These are not just cases, hundreds of these are deaths to come in the next few weeks.
Monochrome heatmap of England COVID-19 cases.

*114* cases per 100,000 in the over-80s, a 28% rise since last week.

@CMO_England said that Tier 3 restrictions by themselves will not reduce R below 1. Increasing cases and more deaths to come under this policy.

Winter is coming.
Positivity for Males.

Real problem with not doing enough testing for men. Espeically as men are more likely to die from Covid.

Over 5% indicates not enough testing. Which covers 10-80 year old men.
Read 6 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
9 Oct
Here is my latest heatmap showing how cases are travelling through the age groups.

It is very concerning.
"The first thing to note is the more-than-doubling in the rate of Covid cases in 10-19 year olds. Many of these will be university students, but it's not clear how many of these are schoolchildren.
“Studies in Spain, France, and the US have all shown that although the second wave may start in young people, it will inevitably move to older people.

“The remarkable thing about this disease is that the death rate increases massively with age.
Read 12 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
9 Oct
Commentary on the Slide Pack shown to MPs

'COVID-19 TaskForce: Data briefing 8 October 2020'

Here it is:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

h/t @robpowellnews and @Smyth_Chris
Slide 1
Comment: The ONS survey does not include students in halls of residence so will underestimate due to outbreaks in halls of residence

But, yes, everything points to the epidemic not being under control

See:
Slide 2

Shows cases above 50 per 100,000. This is good. However, note several colour shades above this - not just the dark purple (and why no scale?)
Read 32 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
9 Oct
Here endeth the National COVID-19 surveillance reports series.

gov.uk/government/pub…
These have been replaced with the National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports. So, that's good.

And I'll be providing weekly updates on these.

But - a few things.
The new reports don't show hospitalizations by NHS trust. These were useful for showing e.g. the 5th highest hopsital trust with admissions per 100,000 population was in London, not the north of England
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
8 Oct
Public Health England have published their latest (week 41) COVID surveillance report. However, this is in a new format called the 'influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report'. It is not clear whether a separate COVID report will be published

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This report does not appear to contain a watchlist of local authorities. Previous weeks have contained a watchlist of local authorities published jointly by PHE / Joint Biosecurity Centre / NHS Test and Trace.

See this for last week's
This is the chart for positivity. Increasing. Change of methodology this week - a good thing as a more conventional calculation.

'Positivity is calculated as the number of individuals testing positive during the week divided by the number of individuals tested during the week.'
Read 19 tweets

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