Dr Duncan Robertson

Follow @Dr_D_Robertson

9 Oct, 32 tweets, 85 min read

Commentary on the Slide Pack shown to MPs

'COVID-19 TaskForce: Data briefing 8 October 2020'

Here it is:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

h/t @robpowellnews and @Smyth_Chris

Slide 1
Comment: The ONS survey does not include students in halls of residence so will underestimate due to outbreaks in halls of residence

But, yes, everything points to the epidemic not being under control

See:

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1313027943640297476

Slide 2

Shows cases above 50 per 100,000. This is good. However, note several colour shades above this - not just the dark purple (and why no scale?)

Slide 3

This is not the same colour scale as used in 30 September briefing (actually more conservative / 'less scary')

See this thread for why this can change perceptions:

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1314328492088193024

Focus on areas with >50 cases per 100,000 - that was ~ the watchlist threshold

Slide 4

LOOK AT THIS SLIDE

This is a better predictor of where people are going to die. The infection fatality rate scales very heavily with age.

Slide 5

Increasing rapidly. Ask yourself the question why they are dashed lines - this is a delay in getting the test results back.

Slide 6

Yes, it is spreading differentially across different regions, but these are precursors for other parts of the country.

Note rapid rise in 10-19 year olds (light blue)

Slide 7

NE & Yorkshire, NW. Ask how many days until capacity reached in hopsitals (and for all regions of the country)

Slide 8-11 go into more detail for NE/Yorks & NW

THIS IS NOT JUST A NORTH PROBLEM

Look at this again

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1314328492088193024

and remember ~ 50 cases per 100,000 was the watchlist threshold

Remember ONS may be underestimating students in halls of residence

Slide 12

Remember the Chief Scientific Officer / Chief Scientific Adviser briefing on 21 September? That was to tell you that transmission happens by aerosols. That's big news.

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1308076859452723200

And while we're discussing the Chief Scientific Officer, have a read of this thread. It is the state of 'The Science' on 14 July

It's called "Preparing for a Challenging Winter" and it's available here:

acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/…

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1306631814849626117

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

9 Oct

Here is my latest heatmap showing how cases are travelling through the age groups.

It is very concerning.

"The first thing to note is the more-than-doubling in the rate of Covid cases in 10-19 year olds. Many of these will be university students, but it's not clear how many of these are schoolchildren.

“Studies in Spain, France, and the US have all shown that although the second wave may start in young people, it will inevitably move to older people.

“The remarkable thing about this disease is that the death rate increases massively with age.

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

9 Oct

Here endeth the National COVID-19 surveillance reports series.

gov.uk/government/pub…

These have been replaced with the National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports. So, that's good.

And I'll be providing weekly updates on these.

But - a few things.

The new reports don't show hospitalizations by NHS trust. These were useful for showing e.g. the 5th highest hopsital trust with admissions per 100,000 population was in London, not the north of England

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1313941829763596289

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

8 Oct

Public Health England have published their latest (week 41) COVID surveillance report. However, this is in a new format called the 'influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report'. It is not clear whether a separate COVID report will be published

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

This report does not appear to contain a watchlist of local authorities. Previous weeks have contained a watchlist of local authorities published jointly by PHE / Joint Biosecurity Centre / NHS Test and Trace.

See this for last week's

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1311998656174788608

This is the chart for positivity. Increasing. Change of methodology this week - a good thing as a more conventional calculation.

'Positivity is calculated as the number of individuals testing positive during the week divided by the number of individuals tested during the week.'

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

8 Oct

Test Trace and Isolate isn't working.

Specifically
- Testing isn't working
- Tracing isn't working
- Isolating isn't working

SAGE minutes of 1 May (Meeting 32) stated that 'at least 80% of contacts of an index case would need to be identified for a system to be effective'

gov.uk/government/pub…

Here's a chart of the progression of people through the TTI system
nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/chart…

Also follow @ADMBriggs for excellent analysis of the TTI statistics

You can see we are nowhere near where we need to be

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

6 Oct

Let's not lose sight of what's happening.

We may not be able to rely on case data. But here's the latest PHE map of cases. Not now restricted to the north east and the north west - look at London

So if we can't rely on cases, we have to use other metrics.

Here is a graph of admissions to hospital in England.

478 people were admitted today. And the trend is upwards.

What happens if you deteriorate is that you end up in ICU or a High Dependency Unit.

So what's happening there? These are increasing too.

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

6 Oct

Positivity calculations (please ignore this everyone, trying to work something out)

@theosanderson @ADMBriggs @dan_grey (please add in anyone interested)

We are trying to reconcile the data from this chart
(source: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… )

Let's look at week 36, as that's what @theosanderson used in his FOI request
whatdotheyknow.com/request/689515…

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