We must reduce mining impacts, but at the same time we’re gonna need copper for net zero. LOTS OF IT. (THREAD)
Current global pop w/o electricity: 1 billion
Current pop w/o clean cooking fuel: 3 billion (think electric stoves w clean power)
Global pop by 2050: 10 billion
(1/7)
Current global pop w/o electricity: 1 billion
Current pop w/o clean cooking fuel: 3 billion (think electric stoves w clean power)
Global pop by 2050: 10 billion
(1/7)
https://twitter.com/triofrancos/status/1319328671996534786
Copper intensity of electric gen by type, in tons/GW capacity:
Onshore wind: 1700-6700
Offshore wind: 1650-10000, likely on higher end
Solar: 4900-7000
Nuclear: 726-2000
(to compare: fossil fuels are around 450-600, not that that's remotely a reason to keep em around) (2/7)
Onshore wind: 1700-6700
Offshore wind: 1650-10000, likely on higher end
Solar: 4900-7000
Nuclear: 726-2000
(to compare: fossil fuels are around 450-600, not that that's remotely a reason to keep em around) (2/7)
By my preliminary calcs for an academic paper I'm working on with @hausfath, @SteveDavisUCI, @erikolsonn, @jamesonmcb + others, assuming a MESSAGE 1.5C decarbonization pathway, we will consume around this much copper per year by 2050: (3/7)
Onshore wind: 1.1 mil tons copper/yr
Solar PV: 1.5 mil tons/yr
Offshore wind: 0.4 mil tons/yr
Total: 3 mil tons/yr, +15% of world production of 19.7 mil tons/yr today.
It’s vanishingly hard to chart a reasonable, equitable decarbonization not involving “green extraction”
(4/7)
Solar PV: 1.5 mil tons/yr
Offshore wind: 0.4 mil tons/yr
Total: 3 mil tons/yr, +15% of world production of 19.7 mil tons/yr today.
It’s vanishingly hard to chart a reasonable, equitable decarbonization not involving “green extraction”
(4/7)
Copper isn’t going into capitalism + iPhones + cars.
50% of Cu stock is in buildings, 22% is in infrastructure like power. Turnover is slow, recycling won't cut it.
Housing 10 billion w reliable clean power + stoves + A/C is a worthy goal - one needing lots of Cu. (5/7)
50% of Cu stock is in buildings, 22% is in infrastructure like power. Turnover is slow, recycling won't cut it.
Housing 10 billion w reliable clean power + stoves + A/C is a worthy goal - one needing lots of Cu. (5/7)
Not only is recycling wholly insufficient (copper demand/yr could triple by 2050) but circular economy advocates often forget recycling uses energy too (tho *much* less) + has its own enviro/co2 costs.
We must fix mining impacts on people/enviro but we also need mines. (6/7)
We must fix mining impacts on people/enviro but we also need mines. (6/7)
We can reduce some future demand for new copper + other materials via improvements to current recycling practices + technological innovation that reduces/substitutes material demand.
In the end though, we will likely still need to mine lots of new ore in next few decades. (7/7)
In the end though, we will likely still need to mine lots of new ore in next few decades. (7/7)
Postscript: estimates of copper intensity in generation technologies are based on whole-plant LCAs, but do not include off-site transmission. Also am not considering battery storage.
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