Thread by @BenChu_

THREAD ON UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS AFTER COVID

Recall this in the PM’s conference speech last month?

“In the depths of WW2, in 1942 when just about everything had gone wrong, the government sketched out a vision of the post-war new Jerusalem that they wanted to build”…1/

…What was Johnson referring to?

Answer: the 1942 Beveridge Report on reforming social insurance.

It was massively popular, selling 600,000 copies and giving Britain a vision of a better country after the war…2/

…Johnson is not, as far as we know, planning to reform welfare.

But many say the pandemic creates the need for a “New Beveridge”.

What might it look when it comes to social insurance?…3/

…Many have noted the fact that Continental jobless schemes offer a high replacement of previous earnings – e.g 80% in Sweden & 60% in Germany.

They have systems rather like the original UK furlough – jobless benefits are proportional to the individual’s previous earnings…4/

…In the UK Jobseeker’s Allowance is £74 a week for everyone.

Even if you add in means tested top up benefits the UK system still replaces a very low share of the previous earnings of the average earner relative to other countries’ systems…5/

…What would a “new Beveridge” for unemployment benefits look like today?

Wouldn’t it look like what much of Continental Europe has?

Wouldn’t it look like the furlough i.e earnings-related?...6/

…Labour’s shadow Work and Pension Secretary @jreynoldsMP seemed to hint at this in an interview over the summer…

7/politicshome.com/thehouse/artic…

…There will be objections.

Some will fear a two-tier benefits system, privileging those in work.

Others will fear lower benefits for people with disabilities etc.

Some will urge a focus on simply increasing the generosity of JSA and Universal Credit …8/

…But the evidence from Europe is a than earnings-related benefits systems create stronger solidarity & more generosity because they reinforce the contributory principle, thus giving the broader welfare system more popular legitimacy and making it more sustainable…9/

…Another objection will be that this been proposed and tried before in the UK and come to nothing.

True.

But could the massive shock of the pandemic change be the breakthrough moment?...10/

…Could mass unemployment, with so many people on middle incomes encountering the UK’s ungenerous and means tested system for the first time, change attitudes?…11/

…And the furlough has arguable given millions the taste of something different, more Continental.

It’s only one survey, but a poll by @FindoutnowUK this month for @independent found majority support for moving to earnings-related benefits…12/

…So much more to say of course.

Read my @indypremium long read if this has whetted your appetite…13/

independent.co.uk/independentpre…

…And listen to my analysis for @bbcradio4 , coming up at 8.30pm on Monday 26 October.

bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00…

And please let me know what you think!…/ENDS