Share this page!

Alistair Haimes Profile picture
Twitter logo
24 Oct, 10 tweets, 10 min read
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks / admissions
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. ICU profile: ICNARC

#ahcveng
1. Incidence

ONS: Incidence now up to 35k per day, 0.9% overall; huge variance regionally and by age group, with young getting infected *much* faster than old (good news), and this is backed up by Zoe (KCL/CSS) data: ()

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
2. Care home outbreaks / admissions

Care home outbreaks flat; still 3% of outbreaks. But admissions from care homes rising (so size of each outbreak bigger?)

*If* our interventions work, why are admissions from care homes growing at the same pace as elsewhere? 🤔
3. Hospital admissions, ICU / hospital occupancy and hospital deaths

Huge regional variation, and v. different to 1st wave (pattern & velocity)
4. Covid triage

Key >70 data still not pointing to an incoming spike of hospital admissions.

Overall levels subsiding following back-to-school/college/uni spikes in younger age groups.

Data: digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…
5. Cases

With change in season, every time cases look to have stabilised they kick up again: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType…

See surveillance report for region/age variation: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

For granular data I recommend following these charts:
6. Contact tracing

I'm currently isolating, my thoughts on the experience as a punter here!:

The summary: it's farcical.

Contact tracing is better left to the patient, the infrastructure could swivel to cluster tracing: theatlantic.com/health/archive…
7. Mortality

*Currently* no excess mortality in 2nd wave, according to ONS (mortality year-to-date at 2009 levels) and PHE.

Deaths in 2020 are as far above trend as 2019 was below: "dry tinder" (sorry). Chart from


ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Chris Whitty (@CMO_England) was clear from the start that excess deaths are *the* key metric.

If so, the difference 1st to 2nd wave is stark. In fact, 2nd wave isn't showing up in excess deaths (yet).

(Data: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…)
8. ICU profile: ICNARC

Update to @ICNARC report on ICU: icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audi…

2nd wave VERY different: trajectory, geography (London immunity), treatment & outcomes (drugs + ventilation protocol = 🔼 survival, shorter stay)

Slower admissions + shorter stay = more capacity.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Alistair Haimes

Alistair Haimes Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AlistairHaimes

Alistair Haimes Profile picture
24 Oct
My experience of contact tracing.
---
My daughter was sent home from school to isolate Tuesday morning, following a positive test by her teacher (who had been isolating since Friday).

She rapidly developed (moderate) fever and kept falling asleep (fine now), so was tested /1
This was 2.30pm Tuesday.

Result came through 10pm Thursday; within half an hour we had phoned all contacts (piano teacher, school, houseguests, other direct contacts).

Contact tracers phoned us 17 hours later (Friday afternoon); we gave them all the same information. /2
I asked what the point of contacting people we had already contacted; they confessed "basically... not much".

Since then they have repeatedly been contacting us (in isolation) by phone and text to confirm our details, even though I've told them we're isolating. /3
Read 5 tweets
Alistair Haimes Profile picture
17 Oct
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. Miscellaneous: nosocomial

#ahcveng
1. Incidence

ONS shows continued increase in incidence as the seasons change, driven by areas of the country subject to enhanced lockdown restrictions.

Great news: clear divergence between incidence in the vulnerable >70 versus younger age groups.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
(Caution due on the NE/Yorks piece of that chart: doesn't tally with the Zoe incidence data, which otherwise generally ties in well with ONS).

Read 13 tweets
Alistair Haimes Profile picture
9 Oct
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital / ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. Mortality
8. Miscellaneous: ICU, France & Spain, GB Dec

#ahcveng
1a. Incidence

Zoe (KCL CSS) suggests incidence is slowing after a steep rise, whereas ONS and Imperial (REACT1) show sharp recent rise.

covid.joinzoe.com/data

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
1b. Incidence

Note sharp age distinction in ONS / REACT1; if you favour the "GB Declaration" approach (see below) you would want the difference between young and old incidence and trajectory as great as possible

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Read 14 tweets
Alistair Haimes Profile picture
2 Oct
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Incidence
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital & ICU admissions and deaths
4. Covid triage
5. Cases
6. Contact tracing
7. The Vallance-tracker
8. Mortality
9. Miscellaneous

#ahcveng
1a. ONS incidence

The headline is that during the most recent week (18 to 24 September) there were around 8,400 new infections per day not including those living in institutional settings, *down* from 9,600 previous week.

Still not rising in the elderly

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… ImageImageImage
1b. Other incidence

We also had the Imperial "REACT1" interim incidence report this week which also pointed to a slowdown, and the KCL Zoe app (tracking symptomatic cases) points in the same direction

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

covid.joinzoe.com/data ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Alistair Haimes Profile picture
25 Sep
Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:

1. Cases
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital deaths / admissions
4. Covid triage
5. Prevalence
6. Contact tracing
7. The Vallance-tracker
8. Mortality
9. Miscellaneous

#ahcveng
1. Cases

1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.

Source: Gov dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType…
1. Cases

1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need / NHS) and pillar 2 (community swab) cases and % positive. The left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so.

Source: PHE covid surveillance report
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 15 tweets
Alistair Haimes Profile picture
24 Sep
"The scrutiny provided by our legislature was absent when it was most required.

The social costs of lockdown are extraordinary: the burden of proof for every day it was maintained should have been more extraordinary still. +
"It should never have been down to a cabinet, let alone the coronavirus quad or a poorly prime minister, to decide when rights we have taken for granted since Magna Carta should be restored: their suspension should have needed justifying daily, with the bar set high. +
We should be profoundly concerned at the precedent: the legislation was fatally flawed by the omission of a dead man’s switch, such that civil liberties would be restored automatically the moment their suspension was not overwhelmingly and objectively justified. +
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @AlistairHaimes