Thread by @pwr_electronics

Really Wow, 100% solar is new at this scale. You may say „only for one hour!“ but there is only one third of private homes equipped so far with solar and they contributed 77% of the Solar power. Large solar utilities shared the other 23%. Now... 1/n

https://twitter.com/austeslaowners/status/1320189123630514176

... just imagine the next third of homes being equipped or new large utilities being built, doubling their power output. „Won‘t happen. Who wants solar, it’s too expensive.“ Really? If so, why are 1/3 of homes already equipped with solar? If you reach 10% of market share... 2/n

... you have typically left the early adopters and idealists behind. (Great talk from @tonyseba below, btw.) And this first third was achieved under far worse economic conditions than the next one will, because... 3/n

... prices for solar keep declining each year, so we can assume the next third of homes being equipped within the next few years. „And large utilities? 23% is already super low and You for sure need them to control the grid!“ Well yes, two things here. First... 4/n

... private solar had a big head start as you won’t find that much idealists and even first adopters among utility operators for mere economic reasons. But we now have reached a point where solar is the cheapest way to generate energy for new... 5/n

irena.org/newsroom/press…

... utilities. It is even getting in the range to be more economic to build a new solar utility with battery storage than keeping an existing coal fired plant running! So whenever a large service/repair/invest in a fossil utility becomes necessary, their end... 6/n

... is imminent. „But Energy utilities last for decades!“ Yes but in every larger region there will be some that won’t wait any longer and try to be first to market, as these will eat all the lunch of conventional backup reserve plants all by themselves as cold be seen ... 7/n

... after the first year of operation of the large #Hornsdale power reserve, the first of #Tesla s utility scale batteries. The numbers are absolutely crazy: the battery is only 2% of the installed FCAS capacity, but ... 8/n

reneweconomy.com.au/revealed-true-…

... it has taken 55% market share while at the same time cutting FCAS (frequency control & ancillary services) prices by 90% as summarized by @tonyseba , crushing gas FCAS revenues. And to my second point from above: we don’t even need large utilities in the future because... 9/n

... we now can create and control „virtual power plants“VPP from home solar and batteries. #Caterva was one of the players here but maybe #Tesla will be first to market (lmk if you know someone else!)as they demonstrated their VPP and outperforming...10/n

aemo.com.au/-/media/files/…

... all expectations. While still being under construction, the VPP saved the grid as the largest coal plant in the area tripped off unexpectedly, ripping 748MW off the grid. „But I still can not believe we can afford to go... 11/n

tesla.com/connectedsolut…

... on 100% #renewables!“ There are some detailed calculations available, e.g. one for 🇩🇪 carried out by @FraunhoferISE below, considering various scenarios. To summarize: If we want to achieve 100% until 2050, we have to spend each year roughly... 12/n

ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publication…

... 50% of the sales in the annual #Christmas Business, and will be energy independent and #climate neutral forever on.

Sounds worth it, I would go with only 50% socks and reindeer sweater. 13/13

And if you are wondering how #Germany is doing along the way, I highly recommend Bruno Burgers @energy_charts , they are amazing.

energy-charts.info/charts/energy_…

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