Watching a live-streamed presentation on Armenia and Azerbaijan in the context of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict from the Netherlands. Apparently neutral. Might live-tweet any relevant points worth being amplified to and for all sides as well as others interested. HT @babayevsky
Perhaps the most important point articulated by @adrianrogstad just now is that the international community is frustrated by the inability of Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Remember, the main ceasefire agreement was signed 26 years ago.
However, worth noting that @adrianrogstad also points out that Putin has hardly been enamoured by Pashinian's premiership. That said, a key new player this time is Turkish support for Azerbaijan. Ankara willing to take on Moscow for influence in the South Caucasus region.
He also believes that it is also possible that Ankara might be attempting to displace the OSCE Minsk Group in the Karabakh conflict, turning mediation into a Russian-Turkish affair. Moscow, however, not pleased. @adrianrogstad calls it a 'frenemy' relationship.
Russia considers this 'it's turf,' but doesn't want to alienate either Armenia or Azerbaijan. Even if Moscow were to force both, Russia would risk resentment in both too, pushing Azerbaijan to move closer to Turkey, and Armenia to the West. Instead is pushing for negotiations.
That's an interesting view from @adrianrogstad. Basically, he says Russia doesn't want either Armenia or Azerbaijan to win militarily as it will change the geopolitics of the region. Negations that maintains their sphere of influence in the region is preferred. #Karabakh
Should point out that I missed Eske's talk and just got to hear her Q&A. Those live-tweets were just one speaker. Also, those were the opinions of two presenters. Others will disagree, but in these days of #COVID19 it's good meetings are going online and discussion encouraged.

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More from @onewmphoto

26 Oct
As mentioned, I've a piece coming soon on the impact fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh will have on Georgia. Because of word count, can't include all the interviews other than in much shorter quotes. So tweeting key points here over next few days. 1/
Today's key points are the responses from Georgian International Relations Analyst @ISirbiladze. It won't be any surprise that he considers the implications of fighting are very serious for the region. #Armenia #Azerbaijan #Karabakh 2/
In this fighting, says @ISirbiladze, Turkey can be considered an 'open enabler' while Russia is a 'failing disabler.' Moscow has shown itself unwilling or unable to dissuade Azerbaijan from continuing with its military operations against Armenian forces in and around Karabakh. 3/
Read 9 tweets
25 Oct
Seems the Basic Principles are still on the table, and reportedly in Yerevan too. 1/4

"[…] Baku is ready to halt hostilities in and around Nagorno-Karabakh if Armenia accepts a framework peace accord put forward by the United States, Russia and France."

azatutyun.am/a/30911727.html
"In separate comments to the Sputinik news agency, [Pashinian spokesperson] Gevorgian said that Yerevan is “committed” to seeking a peace deal that would be based on the principles cited by Aliyev. “Armenia is prepared for a ceasefire and a negotiating process,” she said. 2/4
“Their essence is known: a phased liberation of districts around Karabakh while observing security guarantees for Karabakh and ensuring a reliable link [with] Armenia until determining the final status of Karabakh,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said […]." 3/4
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
Following the recent post by @ArpiBekaryan I'm going to post about some grassroots conflict resolution projects I've seen. Though not without problems, they didn't fall into the cookie cutter trap of closed doors and usual suspects. One was Tekali...

balcanicaucaso.org/eng/zone/Armen…
The ethnic Azeri village of Tekali was chosen for cross-border meetings. More importantly, rather than involve the 'elite' in the capitals, it's location in Georgia on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border allowed people from the regions of all three to attend.

balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Arme…
Not only that, but discussions were held in the 'real world,' and not a fancy spar resort or hotel in a major urban centre. No closed doors, no confined spaces. Real interaction between Armenians and Azerbaijanis with local ethnic Azeri families hosting.

conflict-voices.net/blog/2012/07/f…
Read 9 tweets
25 Oct
Because of other recent events, only got to catch the first four episodes of this excellent podcast series. Time to listen to the remaining three. Now episode 5. Did not know Dylann Roof was listening to Christian’s former band. #Charleston #XRW 1/2
Interesting introduction too. On whether Preventing / Countering Violent Extremism (P / CVE) should be entrusted to former violent extremists? Not solely, but if genuine, they can be important and credible messengers. Also mentors, but let’s see what the conclusion is. #XRW 2/2
Wow. That was an excellent and honest episode. @oyousef not holding back asking difficult questions. My conclusion? I think ‘formers’ such as @cpicciolini are important actors in P/CVE. But what’s also needed is a holistic approach comprising many types of people, practitioners.
Read 4 tweets
24 Oct
There'll be an article coming on the impact the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has had on Georgia next week, but regarding the impact on the ethnic Armenian and Azeri communities, some of the points made in various interviews to come over the next few days. 1/5
First up, Arnold Stepanian, Chairperson of the Multinational Georgia public movement. He describes the situation as being more tense between the two communities than at anytime before. He reckons about 12,000 people total from both have engaged in some kind of demonstration. 2/5
But to put that in perspective, Georgia’s ethnic Armenian and Azeri minority communities stand at 168,000 and 284,000 respectively. Stepanian believes that mis/disinformation on social media is playing a more active role in radicalising people than at any time before. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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