Watching a live-streamed presentation on Armenia and Azerbaijan in the context of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict from the Netherlands. Apparently neutral. Might live-tweet any relevant points worth being amplified to and for all sides as well as others interested. HT @babayevsky
Perhaps the most important point articulated by @adrianrogstad just now is that the international community is frustrated by the inability of Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Remember, the main ceasefire agreement was signed 26 years ago.
However, worth noting that @adrianrogstad also points out that Putin has hardly been enamoured by Pashinian's premiership. That said, a key new player this time is Turkish support for Azerbaijan. Ankara willing to take on Moscow for influence in the South Caucasus region.
He also believes that it is also possible that Ankara might be attempting to displace the OSCE Minsk Group in the Karabakh conflict, turning mediation into a Russian-Turkish affair. Moscow, however, not pleased. @adrianrogstad calls it a 'frenemy' relationship.
Russia considers this 'it's turf,' but doesn't want to alienate either Armenia or Azerbaijan. Even if Moscow were to force both, Russia would risk resentment in both too, pushing Azerbaijan to move closer to Turkey, and Armenia to the West. Instead is pushing for negotiations.
That's an interesting view from @adrianrogstad. Basically, he says Russia doesn't want either Armenia or Azerbaijan to win militarily as it will change the geopolitics of the region. Negations that maintains their sphere of influence in the region is preferred. #Karabakh
Should point out that I missed Eske's talk and just got to hear her Q&A. Those live-tweets were just one speaker. Also, those were the opinions of two presenters. Others will disagree, but in these days of #COVID19 it's good meetings are going online and discussion encouraged.
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