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28 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I have a really cool analysis I'm working on for #ElectionTwitter. Idk if it'll have cool charts or just numbers. But I'm counting on you guys for some retweets

Really hammers home the point that I (& we) have been sharing for the past several months

Share tonight or tomorrow?
I'm not exaggerating this is one of the coolest pieces of research I've done. I really wish I had a graphics team to make it look cool but you all are gonna get some shitty excel chart and it'll still blow your mind.

I'm trying my best. I'll get it up tonight
Guys, it's a two-parter and part 1 was itself enough to make me go "wow"

I just noticed something very interesting that I'm going to do as part 2.

Posting both tonight.

I hate to oversell, but this is good stuff
Ok guys coming in about 2 minutes as a new post. Let's get 2am EST Election Twitter lit.

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More from @RealCarlAllen

Carl Allen Profile picture
28 Oct
1/2 Since 2004, a candidate has polled at or above 49% in a battleground state and gone on to lose that state once. One time. #ElectionTwitter

Never in recent history (curious if ever?) - has a candidate polled over 50% and lost.

@FiveThirtyEight
@RealClearNews
Sidenote before pt 2 (which I think is even crazier than pt 1):

Battleground states are, by definition, supposed to be close.

That doesn't always mean Tossup - it includes many lean blue or lean red states.

HOWEVER.

This is a strong piece of data to show 49%+ is DOMINANT
2/2
Not only has a candidate only ONCE lost a state since 2004 with a polling avg of 49%+, but also

Only TWICE has a candidate with a polling avg of 49%+ underperformed that poll number:
FL12Romney 49.7 --> 49.1
NV04Bush 51 --> 50.47
@FiveThirtyEight @RealClearNews @Redistrict
Read 12 tweets
Carl Allen Profile picture
26 Oct
Here's my Election Forecast and accompanying map.

I think IA (lean D) GA (lean D) along with TX (lean R) and OH (lean R) will be the closest states. Maybe too close to call on election night

But Biden wins FL, PA, MI and WI by comfortable enough margins that election is called.
So some of you know but for those who don't, my background is in sports data.

When it comes to sports betting, it's not good enough to pick the winner, you need to be able to predict the spread too. So let's compare my final vote predictions to those of the top forecasters.
And to clarify:

Election margin - the thing everyone tries to predict - is a function of FORECASTING.

The poll margin - the thing I'm trying to educate people about what it actually means - is not about a forecast. It's about understanding data.

So with that, some charts...
Read 8 tweets
Carl Allen Profile picture
26 Oct
Just a reminder for my friends in forecasting - @jhkersting @gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 @ReedForecasts and I'm really sorry if I missed anyone -

That 2012 is the best comp for 2020.

2016 being most recent, most memorable, makes it *feel* more comparable, but that's a bias.
And while I'm here, I need to issue an apology to @gelliottmorris.

At the beginning of my deep, deep dive into politics/polling, I had a big problem with @TheEconomist Forecast.

He may or may not even remember (and I wasn't *that* big of an a-hole..) but I should elaborate
My beginning of analysis into polling & politics data came from sportsbook odds. I know how sportsbook odds work - and how people normally misunderstand how they work - and based on this I concluded it's more likely pollster/forecasters were wrong than the sportsbooks.
Read 7 tweets
Carl Allen Profile picture
25 Oct
Biden's polling at 49.1% in FL with ~4% undecided.

Trump won FL in 2016 with 49.02%.

Biden's polling at 49.4% in NC with ~4% undecided.

Trump won NC at 49.8% in 2016.

People are seriously underestimating how strong Biden is doing, and how much he's outperforming Hillary.
Not just FL and NC.

Hillary's poll average wasn't above 47% in ANY SWING STATE. None. Do you know how crazy that is?

Biden is polling at 47.6% *IN GEORGIA*
Biden is polling at 47.5% *IN IOWA*

Hillary was polling at 45.1% *IN MAINE*
Hillary was polling at 44.9% *IN MINNESOTA*
Hell, Biden is polling at 47.5% *IN TEXAS*

Hillary was polling at 46.6% *IN VIRGINIA*

Hillary couldn't crack 47% in even the bluest of the swing states.

Her lead was *always* flimsy. To their credit, @FiveThirtyEight's model called that.

But I don't think they understand why
Read 6 tweets
Carl Allen Profile picture
25 Oct
The problem with 538's definition of "polling error" goes back to experimental design

That is, does this thing measure what we're saying it does?

In the case of "poll margin - election margin = poll error" they're assuming poll attempts to measure the final outcome. It doesn't!
If you're not a science person, and you're like "what does this mean?" Here's how I break it down

Polls measure *preferences* of decided voters, and *how many* undecided voters. That's it!

Elections, unlike polls, don't include undecideds. This means variables have changed!
Check out these polls from NV, 2018. How about NV-2? Poll is 16-23. Meaning ~61% undecided

Does this poll suggest that Amodei will probably win? Debatable. Does it suggest he'll probably win by about 7? No! Why? It tells us *nothing* about the 61% undecided. (He won 58-42)
Read 9 tweets
Carl Allen Profile picture
13 Oct
So here I'm going to start a Forecast thread

First up, the general election forecast. This is basically a blended model of my lean-Trump and lean-Biden undecided models, with weight to the lean-Biden because there's evidence to suggest the undecideds - while fewer - will break D
Notably, in this forecast, Biden relatively easily wins the major swing states.

The most contentious states are Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Georgia with Biden narrowly winning Iowa and Georgia and narrowly losing Iowa and Texas.

Remember, these are just probabilities, not concrete
Put another way, my forecast comes out like this.

I wouldn't be shocked if Trump held Iowa and Georgia, nor if Biden took Ohio and Texas. Beyond that, a close election in NC, PA, or FL? Not really seeing it being closer than 2-3 pts as of now
Read 8 tweets

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