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28 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
As a society, we are so divorced from the mechanisms of death that we are forgetting that the people dying of Covid are parents, siblings, grandparents. It is all too easy too look at statistics and be removed from the real lives that are cut short from this dreadful disease
A journalist has just deleted their tweet saying that the average age of those dying from Covid is 82, as if in some way that reduces the tragedy of that individual death.
And to refute the belief that it's 'only' old people - these are the people dying from Covid in the second wave (from @PHE_uk).

Over 1,000 70-somethings
Hundreds of 50-60 year olds and 60-70 year olds

Scores of 40-somethings
And those 82-year-olds mentioned by the journalist?

If they don't catch Covid, they can be expected to live until 90.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
If they *do* catch Covid, there's an (at least) 1 in 10 chance that they'll die.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
In fact, it's probably much higher than a 1 in 10 chance of dying

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
28 Oct
Let's take a little review of where we are with UK Covid restrictions.

It wasn't meant to be like this.

A Thread.

With apologies to Nandos. Image
It wasn't meant to be like this. Remember the Alert Levels (the 'Nandos chart')? The whole idea of that was to set some sort of policy - a roadmap if you will - of how we get out of a national lockdown.

Introducing... Covid Alert Levels. 12 May

gov.uk/government/pub… Image
Remember this? The gentle ski slope of calm.

'R less than 1 caseload decreasing'

Ah, simpler times. Image
Read 17 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
27 Oct
It was great to speak to @JuliaHB1 on @talkRADIO this morning. Here's a clip of the interview.



And a thread on what I was saying in that interview.
Is Test and Trace failing? Yes. Here's a thread I wrote a few weeks ago

Is the virus 'out of control'? Yes.

Read 8 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
24 Oct
Commentary on the @thesundaytimes story 'How the Eldery Paid the Price of Protecting the NHS from COVID-19'.

A Thread.

thetimes.co.uk/article/reveal…
The Sunday Times cover the first wave of the virius, up to May 2020. But the question remains - could it happen again? And what is the Government doing to prevent this?

Let's look at the number of cases in the over-80s
Eight weeks ago, there were 9 Covid cases per 100,000 over 80s.

Last week, there were *114*
Read 13 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Oct
Matt Hancock told the Commons today, placing Stoke, Coventry & Slough into Tier 2

"In all those areas, there are more than 100 positive cases per 100,000 people, cases are doubling approximately every fortnight and we are seeing a concerning increase in cases among the over-60s"
So, it appears that we now appear to have criteria for placing local authorities into Tier 2:
- more than 100 cases per 100,000 people
- cases doubling approximately every fortnight
- concerning increase in cases among the over-60s
100 cases per 100,000 seems arbitrary, especially considering it doubles the previous rate for interventions:
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Oct
Here is the latest heatmap of COVID-19 cases in England. There are now *114* cases per 100,000 in the over-80s, a 28% rise since last week.

These are not just cases, hundreds of these are deaths to come in the next few weeks.
Monochrome heatmap of England COVID-19 cases.

*114* cases per 100,000 in the over-80s, a 28% rise since last week.

@CMO_England said that Tier 3 restrictions by themselves will not reduce R below 1. Increasing cases and more deaths to come under this policy.

Winter is coming.
Positivity for Males.

Real problem with not doing enough testing for men. Espeically as men are more likely to die from Covid.

Over 5% indicates not enough testing. Which covers 10-80 year old men.
Read 6 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Oct
Public Health England have today (22 October) released their latest (Influenza and) COVID-19 surveillance report.

It is for week 43 and includes data up to week 42.
Cases tested remained roughly constatnt. This may be due to limited availability of tests.

Positivity has increased to over 8% in pillar 2 indicating not enough testing is being done.
Here is the map of COVID-19 cases detected this week. Most of the country is now above 50 cases per 100,000
Read 12 tweets

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