Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Oct 29 to Nov 04 -
#COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries/territories.
21 countries analyzed in the thread.
Data: @ECDC_EU or coronavirus.jhu.edu or ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Switzerland will be experiencing rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.33) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at very high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality,
The embedded thread provides details on 7 cantons:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1321134239954407427?s=20

with 7-day forecasts.

3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.34) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/21. France will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at very high levels, which is currently a bit better controlled (R-eff=1.26) than in IT (1.34), CH (1.33), DE (1.32), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/21. Germany will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.32) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. The Netherlands is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at very high levels, which has substantially reduced its pace (R-eff=1.14, lower than in France), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/21. The UK will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, at a reduced pace, lower than FR and NL (R-eff=1.11), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown in Wales for 2 weeks.

8/21. Ireland succeeds to take over control on its wave, has cut its exponential growth in #COVID19 new cases (R-eff=0.98), foreseen to decrease at high levels, with low levels of mortality.
The country is under new lockdown since one week (Oct 21). Schools <12 yrs remains open.

9/21. Ethiopia is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, with low levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

11/21. Israel has successfully controlled (R-eff=0.49) its #COVID19 epidemic wave, landing towards its safety zone, with decreasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
A thread from @segal_eran

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1320354822479093762?s=20

on the lessons learnt from this success story

13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. Nepal may have reached its peak (R-eff=0.97), in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

15/21. Canada has succeeded to slow its #COVID19 epidemic activity, currently close to controlling its surge (R-eff=1.05) at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

16/21. The USA is foreseen to see rising its #COVID19 cases at moderate pace (R-eff=1.12) although at high level, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Embedded thread for more details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1319939916432900103?s=20

With detailed analyses for 7 states.

17/21. Mexico will experience a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, leaving its safety zone (R-eff=1.16), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Brazil will see its #COVID19 epidemic activity plateauing at high levels, with decreasing high to medium levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

19/21. Uruguay is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lessons learnt from its success story (bmj.com/content/370/bm…) during its winter wave.

20/21. Argentina seems to have taken over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.97), foreseen to be remaining at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 epidemic wave. They will remain both within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortlty < 0.50
Very high mortlty > 0.50