1/21. Oct 30 to Nov 05 -
#COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries/territories.
21 countries analyzed in the thread.
Data: @ECDC_EU
or coronavirus.jhu.edu or ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE
& @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Switzerland will be experiencing rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.29) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high to very high levels, with high levels of mortality,
The embedded thread provides details on 7 cantons:

with 7-day forecasts.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.35) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/21. France will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at very high levels. R-eff=1.25 is a bit lower than in IT (1.35), DE (1.31), CH (1.29) with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown from Oc 29 for one month.
5/21. Germany will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.31) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Soft lockdown from Nov 02 for one month.
6/21. The Netherlands is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at very high levels, which has substantially reduced its pace (R-eff=1.14, lower than in France), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
7/21. The UK will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, at a reduced pace, lower than FR and NL (R-eff=1.09), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown in Wales for 2 weeks.
8/21. Ireland succeeds to take over control on its wave, having cut its exponential growth in #COVID19 new cases (R-eff=0.96), still at high levels, with low to medium levels of mortality.
Lockdown from Oct 21 for 6 weeks.
9/21. Uganda is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, with low levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.
11/21. Israel is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, its epidemic wave under control (R-eff=0.62), with decreasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
A thread from @segal_eran

on lessons learnt from this success story.
13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
14/21. South Korea is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
15/21. Canada is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at reduced pace (R-eff=1.06), at medium levels, with increasing low to medium levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.
16/21. The USA is foreseen to see rising its #COVID19 cases at moderate pace (R-eff=1.12) although at high level, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Embedded thread for more details and risk map on:

With detailed analyses for 7 states.
17/21. Mexico will experience a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, leaving its safety zone (R-eff=1.13), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
18/21. Brazil will see its #COVID19 epidemic activity plateauing at high levels, with decreasing high to medium levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.
19/21. Uruguay is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lessons learnt from its success story (bmj.com/content/370/bm…) during its winter wave.
20/21. Argentina seems to have taken over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.97), foreseen to be remaining at high levels, with remaining very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
21/21. Australia and New Zealand have successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 epidemic wave. They will remain both within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.
22/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortlty < 0.50
Very high mortlty > 0.50

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More from @FLAHAULT

30 Oct
1/5 - "En deux semaines, le nombre de patients hospitalisés à cause du #COVID19 a plus que quadruplé en Suisse. Cette hausse s'avère nettement plus rapide que celles observées dans les pays voisins, d'après une analyse de @ValentinTombez @RadioTeleSuisse."
rts.ch/info/suisse/11…
2/5 - "Les mesures en Suisse ne sont pas à la hauteur des enjeux depuis la rentrée. Il faut questionner l'ouverture des bars, des restaurants, des salles de sport, des chorales, des lieux de cultes, des établissements scolaires, mais aussi les rassemblements privés."
3/5 -"Les Irlandais ont pris de vitesse leurs autorités. Face à l'augmentation des cas,ils ont massivement réduit dès le début octobre leur mobilité,bien avant le confinement ordonné le 21/10."Aujourd'hui la courbe exponentielle est cassée, le contrôle de l'épidémie y est repris.
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct
1/21. BREAKING NEWS!!! Updated world risk map available
Oct 31 to Nov 06 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries.
Data: @ECDC_EU
or coronavirus.jhu.edu or ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Switzerland will be experiencing rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.30) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high to very high levels, with increasing high levels of mortality,
The embedded thread provides details on 7 cantons:

with 7-day forecasts. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.34) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 21 tweets
29 Oct
1/9 - Switzerland - Oct. 30 to Nov 05 - Surge in #COVID19 activity at high levels (R-eff=1.29) with high levels of mortality
7 cantons detailed
Data: zh.ch/de/politik-sta…
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Geneva will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.36) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at very high levels, with high to very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/9 - Zürich will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.30) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 9 tweets
29 Oct
1/9 - Suisse : “Parmi les mesures prises par le Conseil fédéral, certaines sont des mesures de confinement. La fermeture des discothèques, l’interdiction de cours dans les établissements supérieurs… sont des formes de confinement.”letemps.ch/sciences/antoi…
2/9 - “Le taux de reproduction aujourd’hui n’est pas celui du mois de mars. Nous sommes <1,5 quand nous étions >3 au printemps. Ces mesures devraient être de nature à ralentir la progression de la #COVID19, mais nous saurons si elles auront été suffisantes dans 15 jours.”
3/9 - “Les autorités suisses prennent un risque en ce moment, en optant pour des mesures qui pourraient ne pas être assez fortes pour enrayer une progression de l’épidémie particulièrement intense sur notre territoire.”
Read 9 tweets
28 Oct
1/21. Oct 29 to Nov 04 -
#COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries/territories.
21 countries analyzed in the thread.
Data: @ECDC_EU or coronavirus.jhu.edu or ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Switzerland will be experiencing rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.33) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at very high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality,
The embedded thread provides details on 7 cantons:

with 7-day forecasts.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.34) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 21 tweets
27 Oct
1/4 - “Je plaide pour la fermeture physique totale des établissements d’enseignement supérieur et secondaire, pendant environ deux semaines, afin de casser la courbe de progression du #SARSCoV2 sans causer de décrochages scolaires irréparables.” google.ch/amp/s/amp.lefi…
2/4 - “Travailler à distance est une très bonne façon de réduire le nombre de contacts dans l’entreprise mais aussi dans les transports en commun.” #télétravail
3/4 - “Un couvre-feu n’est rien d’autre qu’un confinement nocturne, plus vous l’allongez, plus il a d’efficacité en réduisant les contacts sociaux. L’étendre au week-end ne fera que renforcer cette dernière.” #reconfinement
Read 4 tweets

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