The bottom line on 2020: the emerging America-the places & people most comfortable w/how the country is changing demographically culturally economically-appear poised to reclaim control over the country's direction after a massive mobilization. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
That's reflected in the widening Trump deficits w/college + whites & young people, continuing towering deficits w/women of color (even if he gains somewhat w/men) & likelihood he will lose the 100 largest metros by even more than his 15m deficit in 2016.
Trump still has a slim path of massive non-col & non-urban White turnout in key states, but, win or lose, he's further exiling GOP from the places defining 21st century America: it's highly possible that the counties he wins will account for only ~30% (or less) of GDP.
In the House, GOP could be down to around 1/5 of districts w/more college grads than average. He won just 4 of 20 states w/more immigrants than average; all are at risk. He might win just 4/25 states w/most col grads & just 3 or 4 of 21 states where White Christians <45% pop.
I’ve often said modern US politics can be reduced to a single question: How long can Paducah tell Seattle what to do? Next week's answer may be that Seattle—that is, America’s future—has mobilized, by a big margin, to reclaim control of America's direction from Paducah—its past
But that doesn't guarantee the emerging America can implement its agenda. Like the South in 1850s, Rs are laying sandbags to ensure they can drive national policy even if the other party is emerging as the clear national majority party (the new Republican Party then).
And that could make the 2020s the most turbulent decade for America since the 1850s, when a very similar dynamic unfolded. (end)
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