More from @jeuasommenulle

JohannesBorgen

@jeuasommenulle

31 Oct

This chart is really intriguing.
It looks like:
1) Around mid-September the rising trend reversed in Spain
2) Around mid-October, Madrid diverged from the rest of the country.
Can we explain this with mobility data?

Time at work indeed suggests a different trend for Madrid and the rest of Spain since mid-august (presumably more office work in Madrid that can be done from home?)
But the change is not October

Slight difference in time spent at home, especially as of mid September ; but hard to see the explanation there

Read 6 tweets

JohannesBorgen

@jeuasommenulle

30 Oct

An Italian drama could unfold in the next few weeks, with substantial consequences. And, again and again, it's about the (probably not) oldest bank in the world, Monte dei Paschi. What is it about? A quick thread

It all started to unfold when the former CEO & Chairman were convicted earlier this month for accounting fraud (related to the infamous Alexandria etc transactions, worth a thread on their own - btw check who was governor at the BoI back then).

The bank is not directly liable for the conviction of the former CEO & Chairman, but there are many litigations ongoing against Monte Paschi & some of them are related to the capital increases that happened back in the time.

Read 11 tweets

JohannesBorgen

@jeuasommenulle

30 Oct

Enough Covid, let's move back to banks. The Spanish CB published a great Financial Stability Report with extremely interesting data - very useful as we approach a possibly new lockdown. A thread.

There is a lot about corporate weaknesses due to Covid - we've all heard about it, so I'll just mention this graph.

Blue is pre-Covid, red & orange are baseline and bad macro scenarios.

In hospi/leisure weak forms employ 70% of the total employment of the sector. Really grim.

The BoS has an interesting model to explain who takes loan moratorium. The bad news is that there is a strong skew towards lower quintiles of revenues etc.

This is not very encouraging for when payment holidays stop

Read 14 tweets

JohannesBorgen

@jeuasommenulle

29 Oct

J'étaie un peu plus mon thread sur les mensonges de l'allocution du président hier. Allez, c'est parti, on les prend un par un!

"Et si les efforts consentis ont été utiles"
Mensonge #1 : R a été stable autour de 1.2 depuis 3 mois

"Le virus circule en France à une vitesse que même les prévisions les plus pessimistes n’avaient pas anticipé".

#2 - Quelle farce. Je ne compte plus les prévisions plus pessimistes, à commencer par la mienne

Read 22 tweets

JohannesBorgen

@jeuasommenulle

29 Oct

https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1321531337438830593

How long are we going to stay in Lockdown? Macron said at least early December but that doesn't mean anything. More important he said the metric was going down to 5000 cases a day. When will that be? A quick thread to estimate the lockdown duration.

https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1321531337438830593

My first estimate is highly scientific: the first lockdown was 2 months, assuming the handling of the disease is a bit better but we started the lockdown a bit later and it's winter soon, 2 months sounds like a decent benchmark again.

The second estimate: let's reverse the incidence curve and see when we were at 5K. The incidence curve is so horrible now that it's hard to see the number, but 5k was basically the end of august, so 2 months again

Read 5 tweets