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31 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Texas Early Vote (EV) - Full Analysis of Early Vote

THREAD 1/N

Methodology
* Take all EV per county through 10/30
* Multiply 2016 T or C %

Estimated EV estimate
* Trump 51.7% to Biden 43.9%
* Trump is up 755K votes
* Targetearly.Targetsmart.com = 51.3% to 38.9%

1/n
2/n
* 108.28% of the turnout vs. 2016
* Dark Red = Counties Trump win > 20%+ in 2016
* Pink = Trump win 0% < > 20%
* Blue = Clinton win any margin

Next we look at
* Sorted by most EV % over 2016, most raw 2020 EV total
* 2016 Clinton, Trump, Battleground Counties

2/n
3/n
If you sort the table by Biggest % increase over 2016 vote, the Top 38 counties shown are:

8 Clinton Counties
4 Battleground counties
26 Trump Counties

Trump leads in estimated EV 3,010,137 to 2,886,586. 124K lead

3/n
4/n
If you sort by Most Raw votes already in for Early Voting, the Top 38 counties shown are:

* Virtually every big city, it not all
* 8 Clinton Counties
* 8 Battleground counties
* 22 Trump Counties

Biden leads in estimated EV 3,868,370 to 3,850,854. 18K lead

4/n
5/n
2016 Battleground counties (T win < 20%) are running 114% of 2016 raw vote. Highest of the 3 groups

* 11 Total Counties
* 2016 Raw Vote - 1,618,667
* 2020 Raw Vote - 1,858,591
* I'm estimating T+195K 973,981 to 787,857
* Even if you wipe that out, Biden is 370K short

5/n
6/n
2016 Clinton Counties are running 110% of 2016 Raw vote. Middle of the 3 groups.

* 26 Total Counties
* 2016 Raw Vote - 3,993,105
* 2020 Raw Vote - 4,403,769
* I'm estimating B + 966K 2,589,208 to 1,623,434
* A lot of vote in already. Again 750K to make up.

6/n
7/end

2016 Trump counties running 103% of 2016.

* 216 counties +20% T
* 204 +30%
* 192 +40%
* 2016 Raw Vote - 3,317,690
* 2020 Raw Vote - 3,406,886
* I'm estimating T + 1.534M 2,404,557 to 870,329
* Lots of in-person voting likely left here

PREDICTION? Trump +11

7/end

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therealarod1984 Profile picture
14 Oct
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a.msn.com/05/en-us/BB19Z…
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10/12 Texas Border Update - THREAD

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* 7 of Top 23 counties in fatalities are border counties (Orange)
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1/n
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Read 7 tweets
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12 Oct
10/11 TX C-19 Hospital Census: Capacity

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1/n
#RationalGround Image
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therealarod1984 Profile picture
12 Oct
TX Fatalities by Date of Death vs Hospitalizations- 10/11

* Fatalities peak on 7/23
* Hospital census has bumped up right along with an increase in Hospital capacity
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THREAD 1/n Image
I broke down the Hospital situation on Saturday morning and will be updating again today. Below. Hospitals appear to be returning to a more "normal" state. Bed inventory has risen quickly. Delayed care/ elective surgery patients on the increase.

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Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
5 Oct
Back to Texas this afternoon, if you missed @EthicalSkeptic great analysis of Texas last night, I've included it below. Nice to see my assertions confirmed by the great TES! In this thread I'll do my usual breakdown of Hospitalizations vs fatalities, both DoD and DoR.

1/n
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2/n
3/n
10/4 - DoD Report

* 202 Fatalities reported the past 3 days
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* 56 Dates Revised past 3 days
* 38 > 4 weeks old
* 25 > 6 weeks old
* 13 > 8 weeks old
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Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
3 Oct
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*** There is Nothing New Under the Sun ***

Viewing the 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic through the lens of “American Pandemic, The Lost Worlds of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic” by Nancy K Bristow

“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again" Ecc 1:9

THREAD 1/n
2/n
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2/n
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** We will start with Two Striking Differences **

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