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1 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Another tidbit from #Wisconsin: Overall, 68.9% of voters "believe there is a significant number of 'shy' voters who do not want to share that they are voting for @realDonaldTrump," the second highest state yet.

Suburban voters (72.7%) are most likely.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Remember, #Michigan posted the highest percentage of voters (37.6%) who say they are uncomfortable being truthful to pollsters.

Suburban voters (20%) were much more likely than rural and urban voters (14.2% each) to say they are "very" uncomfortable.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Not surprisingly, suburban voters in Michigan were the most likely (70.4%) to "believe there is a significant number of 'shy' voters who do not want to share that they are voting for @realDonaldTrump."

He didn't poll well in the burbs in '16, either.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Point being, if there is a "shy" vote, the numerous questions we've asked for two months clearly identify the suburban voter as the most likely given their disparity in belief and self-reported comfort levels with being honest during interviews.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Peoples_Pundit Profile picture
3 Nov
Thread on Exit Polls and Voter Analysis: Neither the right or the left should put much, if any stock, in either.

Over the years, after witnessing one horrible blunder after another and the damage they leave in their wake, I truly believe media should abstain from using them.
We often ignore the years when exit polls correctly called the winner, though were still showing serious issues due to at least non-response bias.

Veteran exit pollster Murray Edelman has spoken a lot about this.

Here are some notable, egregious misses.
In 2004, the Kerry Campaign was elated. The Bush Campaign was in shock re Florida. The latter was confident they over-performed exit polls. By night's end, a Kerry exit poll win turned into a historically comfortable Bush win in a razor thin state he barely won 4 years before.
Read 13 tweets
Peoples_Pundit Profile picture
28 Oct
The Bobulinski interview on @TuckerCarlson is proving w/o a doubt @JoeBiden played a direct role in lucrative deals with hostile foreign entities while serving as VP.

He said claims he did not “are a blatant lie. I almost stood up and screamed liar and walked out” of the debate.
“I want to simply this for the American people as much as I can.”

Bobulinksi said the May 13 email details how the Bidens will divvy up the money from the deal and that “the Big Guy” is @JoeBiden, who’s 10% cut was funneled through his brother Jim Biden’s 20% cut.
Bobulinksi: “I remember looking at Jim Biden and saying, ‘How are you guys getting away with this?’” and he “chuckled” and said, “plausible deniability.”

That would explain lambasting those who used his name instead of “the Big Guy” in messages and emails.

Wow. Stunning.
Read 8 tweets
Peoples_Pundit Profile picture
25 Oct
With almost 2k interviews in the Rust Belt by this morning and still going, we're going to find out how many people are aware of the story.

We didn't ask opinions about them. Simply wanted to know if they've heard about the recent reports.
More than 1/5 (22.7%) of the 605 voters we interviewed last night in Michigan told us they are NOT "familiar with the revelations" in "recent news reports" surrounding Joe Biden.
FTR, the percentage who are familiar was closer to 65% than 80% w/ those who said they were “unsure”. It’s plausible to think they just don’t want to say “No” and that others who chose “Yes” don’t want to seem uninformed.

But in 2016, it was much higher for reports on Clinton.
Read 5 tweets
Peoples_Pundit Profile picture
23 Oct
The Biden campaign has now shifted the goalposts again to claim there's no indication he's received any money.

Yeah, kinda is. In his taxes, there's an LLC in his and Jill's name with millions in unitemized/undisclosed income.

That's always been the con of personal tax returns.
The truth is, this ritual started by Mitt Romney — politicians running for president releasing their taxes — has been a con for decades.

They tell us nothing about whether someone is corrupt. If anything even could, it would be the business filings, not the personal returns.
The ritual of releasing personal tax returns was started by George Romney, which is what I meant to say in the form of "Mitt Romney's father."

But again the important take is that it was always a con. A token gesture by corrupt pols who know it means nothing and exposes nothing.
Read 4 tweets
Peoples_Pundit Profile picture
7 Oct
Is this where you polled?

If so, no wonder. This is not representative, at all. Sorry, but it isn’t and is why you were wrong in Florida back in 2018, as well.

You straight missed large swathes of voters who are very important.
If that’s the geo participation in the NYT Poll, then at least a significant part of Biden’s lead in them is in no small part nothing more than response bias and an artifact of the polling mode.
1. I'd be embarrassed to tweet maps that show such a distribution.

2. Quinnipiac is not a serious poll, hasn't called an election correctly in years, and wrong in Florida for 5 straight cycles, often grossly. So, please stop asking me what I think about that vs. our Trump +1.6.
Read 4 tweets
Peoples_Pundit Profile picture
1 Oct
Miller, Trump Campaign: "We do not want any changes from what has been agreed to before the first debate."

"It didn't turn out the way they wanted. That's why they want changes."
Negotiator for Trump confirms Biden campaign requested a mute button for the second debate, but it did not come from the commission and was denied.

Biden campaign also seeking to reduce open discussion segment to "almost nothing" to "control" the forum.

They want no changes.
The Biden campaign requesting a mute button for the next debate reminds me of when "stress cards" came out for basic trainees NOT at Ft. Benning in the Army and we just wanted them to go home so they didn't get us killed.
Read 4 tweets

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