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2 Nov, 9 tweets, 6 min read
Nov 2nd #Youthvote thread -

Increase in share of early vote 2020 vs 2016
18-29 - 18%
30-39 - 13%
18-39 - 16%

Total vote, 20 vs 16
18-29 10.4m/4.5m
30-39 10.9m/5.0m
18-39 21.3m/9.5m

GenZ/Millennials stepping up!

Folks at @Axios have a good take on the importance of what's happening with young people right now:

axios.com/blue-wave-deca…
A #youthvote look from Michigan

A really good look at the #youthvote in NC from @henryhaney17 dailytarheel.com/article/2020/1…
In the battlegrounds, AZ/GA/MN/OH/TX seeing big #youthvote surges in the early vote.

IA/NC/NV/PA are grinding it out, all seen an uptick in recent days....

More on the states in this @CleanProsperous youth tracker:

cleanprosperousamerica.org/young-voter-tu…
Here's the @MotherJones magazine article @peteleyden and I wrote all the way back in 2007 which predicted that Millennials and young people were going to be the key to a long period of Democratic/center-left ascendance....

motherjones.com/politics/2007/…
Here's my recent deep dive on the #youthvote in the 2020 elections, and Biden's huge +35 advantage with 18-29 year olds.

In each of last 2 big Dem wins (2008, 2018), youth vote turnout was high, Dems at +34/35. Seeing similar numbers now.

ndn.org/blog/2020/09/a…
Finally, something that needs to be better understood - big early vote allows campaigns to target more low propensity voters, and keep driving turnout up. It's a virtuous cycle. Particularly matters for young voters.

More here from @ThePlumLineGS and me:
More amazing work from @CivicYouth:

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
1 Nov
#Youthvote thread, Nov 1 -

Increase in share of early vote 2020 vs 2016
18-29 - 19%
30-39 - 14%
18-39 - 16%

Total vote, 20 vs 16
18-29 9.7m/4.2m
30-39 10.2m/4.7m
18-39 19.9m/8.9m

Gen Z/Millennials getting it done.

cleanprosperousamerica.org/young-voter-tu…
Young people are not just voting in very large numbers, but they are voting much more Dem.

Clinton 2016 was +19 with 18-29 year olds. Been +33-38 Biden in most natl youth polls. This is a big shift.

2020 #Youthvote = higher turnout, much more D.

Battleground states with highest Gen Z/Millennial vote share increase, 2020 vs 2016 (where have data):

MN 43%
AZ 19%
OH 18%
TX 18%
GA 9%
IA 9%
NC 3%

Want to emphasize - that this vote is up AT ALL, given huge early vote, remains remarkable.
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
28 Oct
Daily #youthvote thread, Wed Oct 28.

14.2m Gen Z/Millennials have turned out so far in 2020. In 2016 at this point it was 6m.

Gen Z/Millennial share of the early vote has gone from 18.3% at this point in 2016 to 22.2% today. That's a 21% increase.

Very good stories about the youth vote in @cnn @politico @usnews yesterday (see yesterday's thread). Today we have this really good one from @NBCNews:

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Moving our little youth data spreadsheet to the @CleanProsperous website (below). They are building it out a bit, adding raw vote totals, making it easier to use.

Thanks again to @tbonier @TargetSmart for providing all this great data.

cleanprosperousamerica.org/young-voter-tu…
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
27 Oct
Daily #youthvote thread.

13.1m Gen Z/Millennials have turned out so far in 2020. In 2016 at this point it was 5.3m.

The Gen Z/Millennials share of the early vote has gone from 17.7 at this point in 2016 to 21.6 today. That's a 22% increase.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Insightful @lbarronlopez #youthvote story in Politico today.
Good read on #youthvote from the always sharp @MilliganSusan.

usnews.com/news/elections…
Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
26 Oct
10/26 #YouthVote thread, using @TargetSmart data:

18-39 voted so far
2016 4.6m
2020 11.8m

18-39s have seen their share of overall electorate increase from 17.2% to 21.1% - a 23% increase.

Bigger slice of bigger pie. Motivated electorate.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Increase in share of early vote from 2016 to 2020 of 18-39s, by state:

AZ +14
FL +11
GA +19
IA +9
MI +155
MN +52
NC +12
MN +11
OH +21
PA - 9
TX +21
WI +23
Some notes:

Polls have been predicting high young voter turnout this year, and we are seeing it so far in the early vote.

Big early youth vote allows Biden campaign to now target lower propensity youth voters they may never gotten to - increases likelihood of historic turnout.
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
25 Oct
Youth vote update 10/25. 18-29 y/o early vote share % increase from 2016, via @TargetSmart:

US +27
AZ +19
FL +14
GA +22
IA +0
MI +121
MN +36
NC +15
NV +11
OH +16
PA -42
TX +40
WI +15

In the battlegrounds, there are 6 states where Gen Z and Millennials (18-39) are over 20% of the early vote:

TX 24.5%
MN 24%
NC 22.9%
GA 21.9%
NV 20.7%
PA 20.6%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
And in the new @dallasnews poll, which has Biden up 48-45 in Texas, his lead is being driven by an incredible performance with young people:

Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
23 Oct
Lots of data now to suggest youth vote highly motivated this election.

Using @TargetSmart's TargetEarly data 18-29 y/o share of early vote up 31% from 2016, a remarkable thing.

Youth much bigger slice of a much larger early vote pie. Not sure many saw that coming. (Thread)
Increase in 18-29 year old share of early vote in select states:

MI - 120%
TX - 55%
MN - 37%
FL - 35%
WI - 31%
GA - 21%
AZ - 19%
NC - 16%
OH - 15%
NV - 13%
At this point 4 years ago 1.2m 18-29 year olds had voted.

As of last night 3.9m 18-29 year olds had voted.

See this new study from @CivicYouth on the strong youth early vote - lots of good data. circle.tufts.edu/latest-researc…
Read 5 tweets

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