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3 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Have to say the flying above the Pacific NW today was...pretty great.

L to R: Mounts Rainier, Adams, and St. Helens.

#PATPNW
Approximate location at the time of shooting that video, about 15 NM north of Mt. St. Helens: Image
Incredible visibility today: you can see here L to R Mt. St. Helens (approx. 30km from my location), Mt. Hood (130km) and Mt. Jefferson (200km). I was at 9500 altitude above sea level. Image
Great shot of Mt. Rainier and Mt. Adams: Image
Out-the-window panoramic with Rainier, Adams, and St. Helens: Image

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More from @tshugart3

Thomas Shugart Profile picture
5 Nov
While you're all hanging out at your computers clicking "refresh" for election news: a few thoughts on this recent response to @AaronFriedberg in @ForeignAffairs:
The article itself provided a forum for Dr. Friedberg to respond-to-the-response itself, so I won't belabor the general international relations points made either in the original article or in the response, or in his final rejoinder.
What I would like to address is the specific assessment of the response's authors on the shape of China's growing military capabilities: that they appear to be the "banal reality" of a normal country building normal capabilities merely commensurate with growing economic power. Image
Read 17 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
12 Oct
It has become clear that a number of observers, having not read the quote which I was RTing, may have gotten the impression that this statement constituted my opinion, when in fact it is quite far it - namely, that...
1) Air Force F-35s seem like pretty cool airplanes, but given that most of their bases could be turned into smoking ruins by Chinese missiles, they also seem unlikely to be able to operate at scale at operationally relevant ranges from where they would be needed in a conflict.
2) U.S. SSNs are the apex predators of the sea; we should buy as many as our industrial base and national purse will allow.
Read 4 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
7 Oct
Lots of discussion has kicked off about the naval force structure proposed yesterday by @EsperDoD, which will include a significant proportion of unmanned (or minimally-manned) ships in an effort to reduce costs, distribute the naval firepower among more & smaller platforms, etc.
This alternative naval force structure sounds to me like an interesting opportunity for a simulation, to see how something like the proposed construct - specifically the use of small and/or unmanned platforms - might perform against a more traditional naval force.
The tool we can use to see what it might look like is Command: Modern Operations (CMO), a commercially-available air/naval warfare sim. Using its scenario editor, we can set up opposing forces and unleash them on each other to see what happens. matrixgames.com/game/command-m…
Read 48 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
16 Sep
A few thoughts on tonnage:

There's been wide discussion recently on the size of the Chinese Navy, largely driven by a recent DoD report's statement that the PLA Navy is now the "largest navy in the world" on the basis of its number of ships. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
If you haven't been paying attention, the PLA Navy is engaged in a naval buildup the likes of which hasn't been seen in quite some time. In fact, the last time any nation build this many warships, and this fast, was during the legendary US "600-ship Navy" buildup of the 1980s.
China's recent buildup is, indeed, comparable in terms of the numbers of ships. As an example, during the years 1982-1986, the USN procured 86 warships, resulting in the the USN's fleet count peaking at the end of that decade. news.usni.org/2020/05/06/rep…
Read 17 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
8 Sep
Some thoughts on the PRC’s growing IRBM force:

I recently pointed out what I thought was the biggest news in the recently-released 2020 China Military Power report: an apparent more-than-doubling of the PLA Rocket Force’s DF-26 IRBM inventory.
This growth to IRBM launchers is a continuation of previous trends: the 2018 report had listed "16-30" launchers, then 80 in the 2019 report, and now 200 in this year's report. iiss.org/blogs/military…
I said in my commentary that, if this growth in capability is real, it could present a more significant challenge to the American way of war in the Western Pacific.

I'd like to expound on that a bit more.
Read 22 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
1 Sep
Ok, folks. The 2020 China Military Power report is out!

Here are a few thoughts on some of the interesting tidbits (IMO): media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/20…
First up: overall size of the PLAN.

Folks will debate whether the PLAN is the "largest" in the world - ship count vs. tonnage, etc.

Regardless, this report reflects its continued VERY strong growth, referring to it as "approximately 350" vs last year's "more than 300".
As the USN continues to produce (& soon start decommissioning) the "controversial" LCS, and works on the design of FFG(X), the PLAN has 42+ Jiangdao FFLs in service.

The FFL production run is now projected to be at least 70(!) ships, the latest equipped with towed array sonars.
Read 22 tweets

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