Thread by @jillongovt

we talk a lot about optimism bias as a reason govt projects go wrong-- assuming things can be delivered too quickly and at lower cost than it usually turns out .. @instituteforgov and @NAOorguk both have written on this

and optimism - and making people feel optimistic is a huge asset in politics.. whether its Boris boosterism, Obama hope/change or a Blairite new dawn

But optimism seems to have been the curse of UK politics in the past decade.. first David Cameron's assumption he could wing - and win - a referendum because guys like him just always wing and win... #effortlesssuperiority

then Boris Johnson assuming he could wing it as PM - appoint a few advisers, delegate the hard stuff to them, and tour the country spreading fairydust - and basking in the post-Brexit glow, because that would turn out OK too

.. which came crashing into the reality of covid.. UK would not be afflicted like those Asian countries.. would not go the way of Italy and Spain.. everything the govt touched would be world beating.. ukandeu.ac.uk/world-beating-…

the UK would duck a second wave .. there was no need to contemplate #Lockdown2 which was the preserve of gloomsters on the Opposition benches.. or the North..

but this is where optimism bias displaces proper contingency planning. The govt's optimism is a reason they are constantly behind the game, looking like surprised rabbits who did not expect a car to be coming down the road at them.

Its why their comms unravel within weeks - and why they lose credibility. They may talk about reasonable worst case scenarios - but their policies are all based on unreasonable best case scenarios

of course we won't need a Brexit extension.. business can prepare for a massive change as we lock down the country... a deal will (possibly) appear at the last minute.. but no deal means sunshine, kangaroos and Kylie - what's not to like..

Anyway, that's made me too gloomy...............but maybe we need the PM to act gloomy -- might then start to find some upsides... ENDS